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SEC Football Talk Little doubt remains of which football conference is truly the best. Will the SEC win an unprecedented fifth straight BCS title? Who will face off in Atlanta this December? Will another one of our own once again capture the prestigious Heisman Trophy? Talk about it all here.

This forum is for SEC Football talk only, not for recruiting, NFL, or non-SEC college football discussion.

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Old 11-25-2009, 07:20 PM   #1 (permalink)
 
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Default Strength of Schedule
There's been quite a bit of arguing about who faced the toughest schedule. Well, let that all be put to the rest with the NCAA's own rankings.

Mississippi State has played the toughest schedule, and hasn't even been close. MSU's past 11 opponents have 65 wins and 28 losses, for a .6989 percentage. Cumulatively, all 12 opponents have 71 wins and 31 losses - for .69. The 2nd toughest schedule, Florida State's, is just at .619.

For the rest of the SEC:

1. Mississippi State - 0.6961
2. Georgia/Arkansas - 0.6117
3. Alabama - 0.6053
4. Florida - 0.5739
5. South Carolina - 0.5700
6. Auburn - 0.5500
7. Vanderbilt - 0.5347
8. Tennessee - 0.5321
9. LSU - 0.5138
10. Mississippi - 0.5053
11. Kentucky - 0.4904

Sure, it was a fun season to watch, but I can't help but wonder where we'd be if we were playing teams like Kentucky (no offense) played. We have nothing to show for it except we played hard.

http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/2009/Intern...games_cumm.pdf


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Old 11-25-2009, 07:24 PM   #2 (permalink)
 
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This one doesn't take into account quality of opponents though does it?
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Old 11-25-2009, 07:27 PM   #3 (permalink)
 
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I don't believe it does. Though at any rate, I'm not sure how much that would shuffle the rankings.


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Old 11-25-2009, 07:31 PM   #4 (permalink)
 
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I don't think it would look to much different.. but there's no way FSU has played the second hardest schedule in the nation. ACC.. give me a break.



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Old 11-25-2009, 07:40 PM   #5 (permalink)
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And theres no way UF would be 4th in the SEC. OOC games against Charleston South., Troy, FL. Int., and FSU certainly dont add up to some of the schedules others have faced. And they didnt play Ole Miss or Bama from the West.
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Old 11-25-2009, 07:43 PM   #6 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ceman 22 View Post
This one doesn't take into account quality of opponents though does it?
No, just wins and losses. In other words, an 8-3 LSU team is the same as an 8-3 Citadel or any other DI-AA team. Those stats aren't right, either. Bluelight accidentally listed the SOS ranking by cumulative opposition; which takes into account future opponents... that's even a more inaccurate way to gauge SOS, because there's no way to know the future opponent's record when you're going to play them. This is the current ranking based on past opposition:

1. Mississippi St. 0.69892473
2. Connecticut 0.63157895
3. Virginia Tech 0.62886598
4. Arizona 0.61627907
5. North Carolina 0.61250000
6. Washington 0.61052632
7. San Jose St.
8. Minnesota
9. Arkansas 0.59782609
Oklahoma
Miami (FL)
Louisville
Syracuse
Miami (OH)
Oregon
Virginia
17. Georgia 0.58064516
Florida St.
Wisconsin
Baylor
Missouri
Clemson
Michigan St.
24. Alabama 0.56382979
Louisiana Tech
Oklahoma St.
UNLV
Texas Tech
Iowa
30. South Carolina 0.55555556
Washington St.
TCU
Ohio St.
South Fla.
Wyoming
Memphis
37. Florida 0.53684211
38. Vanderbilt 0.53465347
Boston College
Arizona St.
Purdue
42. Mississippi 0.52941176
Penn St.
Oregon St.
Akron
Southern California
Colorado St.
49. Tennessee 0.52525253
68. LSU 0.50505051
70. Auburn 0.50000000
82. Kentucky 0.48387097

http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/2009/Intern...games_past.pdf

This ranking, like most, is faulty too. For instance, Alabama actually moved up in SOS this week after playing a DI-AA opponent, because most SOS formulas don't differentiate between A and AA teams... they just count wins and losses.

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Old 11-25-2009, 07:44 PM   #7 (permalink)
 
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You used the past opposition percentage; I used the cumulative ones.


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Old 11-25-2009, 07:53 PM   #8 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bluelightstar View Post
You used the past opposition percentage; I used the cumulative ones.
Right. You can't use cumulative opposition, though, because you haven't played those teams yet. In other words, they won't have the same record when you play them that they do right now, so it's not accurate if you use future opponents and their current records. Really, it doesn't matter either way, because it will change every week. As your past opponents win or lose, it will go up or down; and if you do it by total or cumulative opposition, the same thing will happen as those teams win or lose every week.

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Old 11-25-2009, 08:12 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Just about any strength of schedule formula will be faulty. It's nearly impossible to calculate without some form of bias.


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Old 11-25-2009, 08:24 PM   #10 (permalink)
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You have to remember something about SOS. A good one only makes you better. If you have a soft schedule, it does nothing for the respect you want to get. Yeah, you can win all your games if you play easy games, but who wants to? Even if it gives you an undefeated season, you get no respect. It's that old thing... who have you played? That's what you hear. So the idea is to play the toughest teams you can. Even if you lose some games, you were determined to play the best. That is what makes a great team. Welcoming the best teams you can get on your schedule even if you know you may not win them all.
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Old 11-25-2009, 08:48 PM   #11 (permalink)
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No offense, but using that calculation means many SEC teams' strength of schedule was lowered because they played Mississippi State, as far as SOS goes you never had the luxury of playing yourself :P

Probably doesn't make THAT much of a difference, but is still a factor
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Old 11-25-2009, 08:56 PM   #12 (permalink)
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If you're in the SEC your record speaks for itself for the most part. We'll see next year what state does with an easier schedule.


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Your best chance to beat Mullen was last year. You failed and were actually embarressed by the weakest team Mullen will ever put on the field at MSU. It is going to hurt much worse when Mullen beats You in Oxford this year.
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Old 11-25-2009, 09:03 PM   #13 (permalink)
 
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Originally Posted by mkb193 View Post
No offense, but using that calculation means many SEC teams' strength of schedule was lowered because they played Mississippi State, as far as SOS goes you never had the luxury of playing yourself :P

Probably doesn't make THAT much of a difference, but is still a factor
Circular reasoning then, since we "lower" other teams' SOS because of our SOS.


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Old 11-25-2009, 09:04 PM   #14 (permalink)
 
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Record of opponent as a stand alone is utterly worthless. As of this weekend UK will have played every other team in the eastern division plus Alabama and Auburn. We have nothing to answer for as it concerns SOS.
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Old 11-25-2009, 09:07 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Strength of schedule should be put into acount a little less often. Cormac you know yourself that ya'll were 4 inches from beating LSU. And then Lee throwing 4 picks a game cost ya'll some wins.


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Your best chance to beat Mullen was last year. You failed and were actually embarressed by the weakest team Mullen will ever put on the field at MSU. It is going to hurt much worse when Mullen beats You in Oxford this year.
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