The Wild Wild West in 2008 - ESPN Predictions

[crawfish]

July 8, 2008 by ESPN.com's Chris Low

We shift our focus to the Western Division today, where Auburn and LSU are the two most talented teams. Both have quarterback questions, though, which could leave the door open for somebody else to sneak up and win the division. My predictions kick everything off again, followed by five questions that could define the West race and then the top three games to watch. Later on today, I'll have a two-part Q&A with Auburn offensive coordinator Tony Franklin, who's had the Chick-fil-A Bowl and spring practice to put in his spread offense.

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1. LSU: There's an old adage in football that says muscle up front both offensively and defensively wins every time over the flash and dash of skill players. Nobody in the SEC has a better combination of offensive line personnel and front-seven personnel on defense than the defending national champion Tigers. On offense, center Brett Helms, massive guard Herman Johnson and tackle Ciron Black are all All-SEC caliber players. And even with the loss of Glenn Dorsey on defense, the Tigers return Tyson Jackson and Kirston Pittman at the ends, as well as BCS national championship star Ricky Jean-Francois, who can play both tackle and end. The best thing about Ryan Perrilloux's dismissal was that he didn't go through any of spring practice, meaning there won't be as big an adjustment this fall to redshirt freshman Jarrett Lee and junior Andrew Hatch. Lee is the likely starter at quarterback. He'll be asked to be more of a caretaker than anything, and it's always nice to have the stable of running backs and receivers that will surround him. LSU has to go to Auburn on Sept. 20 and hasn't won at Jordan-Hare Stadium since 1998, but that drought ends this season.

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2. Auburn: Tommy Tuberville has been so consistent at Auburn and won so many big games that you wonder if his success is taken for granted on the Plains. Never shy about shaking things up, Tuberville has a new offensive coordinator (Tony Franklin) and a new defensive coordinator (Paul Rhoads) this season. The Tigers will also have a new quarterback. Sophomore Kodi Burns and junior college transfer Chris Todd exited spring practice in a battle that was too close to call. Todd is the better passer, but was plagued by a sore throwing shoulder all spring. Franklin enters the season expecting both to play. The defense will be a trademark Tuberville defense -- fast, aggressive and nasty. End Antonio Coleman and tackle Sen'Derrick Marks will be two of the better defensive linemen in the league. The schedule also works out nicely for the Tigers, who get Tennessee, LSU and Georgia all at home. Auburn is plenty good enough to win the division and just might, but I think LSU is a little bit better up and down both lines of scrimmage.

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3. Alabama: A toss-up here between Alabama and Mississippi State, but I think the Crimson Tide's touted signing class will be enough to get them in the top half of the division. This team will look more like a Nick Saban team from start to finish this season. In other words, don't look for another epic collapse in November. Much of the burden falls on senior quarterback John Parker Wilson. When he played well last season, Alabama usually played well. Wilson likes what he's seen of new offensive coordinator Jim McElwain's system and wants to spread the ball out to more of his playmakers this fall. Look for freshmen to play key roles on both offense and defense. The Crimson Tide are especially thin at linebacker. Judging from the number of arrests -- 10 within the last year -- Saban is still trying to get the kind of grip he wants on this team. He's acted quickly on the more serious infractions. If the Tide are going to make some legitimate noise in the West race this season, the last thing they need is more off-the-field trouble. All in all, this team still lacks the kind of quality depth it takes to win big in the SEC.

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4. Mississippi State: Mississippi State's patience with Sylvester Croom was rewarded last season as the Bulldogs won eight games and their first bowl game since 2000. Croom was named the SEC Coach of the Year and just recently pocketed a new contract extension and raise that takes his annual salary to $1.7 million. It's well deserved for a man who walked into a mess at Mississippi State when he arrived in 2004. Croom is adamant that the Bulldogs' best days are ahead of them. For that to happen, they need to add more offensive firepower. Croom has tried to increase the speed on the offensive side to match that of the defense. But outside of 240-pound running back Anthony Dixon, the Bulldogs don't have a surplus of proven offensive weapons. Senior free safety Derek Pegues leads a defense that was opportunistic and rock-solid a year ago. One thing we know about Croom's teams is that they don't quit, nor do they discourage easily. The Bulldogs will win a couple of big games this season. They just won't win enough of them to challenge for the West title.

5. Mississippi: Seeing Houston Nutt stroll the Ole Miss sidelines will be strange, but Nutt will be the first to tell you: It was time for him to get out of Arkansas, and most of Hog Nation feels the same way. For all that former Ole Miss coach Ed Orgeron did wrong during his three-year stay in Oxford, he did recruit pretty well in spots. So Nutt has some talent to work with, and he's also got a quarterback that Ole Miss fans are anxious to see. Texas transfer Jevan Snead had a big spring and gave the Rebels a dimension in the passing game they never had under Orgeron. The other guy to watch on offense is incoming freshman tailback Enrique Davis, who was one of the top prep school players in the country a year ago. Nutt joked a few weeks ago that Davis sure did look good on film and that "we're going to find out real quick how good he is on the field." Looking at the Rebels' schedule, it's not too big a stretch to think that they could be 4-0 heading into their trip to Florida on Sept. 27.

6. Arkansas: Bobby Petrino says Arkansas needs to be his last job. Well, seeing is believing. A coaching nomad for most of his career, Petrino is back in the college game after leaving the Atlanta Falcons in the middle of the night last year. He's got his work cut out these first couple of years. The Razorbacks are replacing just about everybody on offense and defense. Casey Dick is the quarterback -- for now -- but Petrino said following spring practice that Dick will have to work to keep that job. The Hogs were so run-oriented under Houston Nutt that you wonder how well and how quickly these players will adjust to Petrino's fast-paced, pass-driven offense. That kind of transformation doesn't just happen overnight. It takes recruiting classes and patience. Then again, it didn't take long for Petrino to make Louisville an offensive juggernaut. He's one of the best offensive strategists out there and keeps teams off-balance with an array of different formations and aggressive play-calling. As good as Petrino is, he'll need to be a miracle worker for the Hogs to be a factor this season. Getting to seven wins would be a coup.

[UAdan]

Good article - and pretty fair.

LSU certainly has the best bunch of linemen in the SEC, and we all know that games are won in the trenches. That could be a deciding factor that propels the Tigers to their second straight SEC Title game. What could be a deal-breaker for them is the schedule, though. Having to play UF, SC, and UGA from the East (in three consecutive weeks, by the way) in addition to all the traditional opponents from the West is a tough task. That's where the door could open for Auburn.

Auburn gets most of their big games at home. The most difficult road challenge doesn't come until that showdown in T-town on November 29th.

I don't think the off-season arrests for Alabama were really worth mentioning - most of the guys who have been in trouble have been disciplined properly. Saban is still trimming the deadwood, so to speak. The guys who want to do things right will do things right. Those who don't will be shown the door.

Alabama's biggest problem for its West chances isn't off-the-field problems. Every team has those (granted, Alabama has had more than its fair share in the last 12 months). The Tide's biggest question mark is the overall depth and talent compared to the likes of LSU and Auburn. I know the saying gets old, but we still "aren't quite there yet". The schedule is difficult too. Road games at Arky, UGA, UT, and LSU is tough. If there is any silver lining, it's that we have a senior at QB, which normally proves beneficial in this conference.

Miss. State and Ole Miss could both go bowling this year, can't remember the last time that happened in the same season. The Bullies and the Rebs could play the "spoiler" role and ruin someone's SEC chances late in the season. Croom's teams always have that "never say die" attitude, while Ole Miss has been in a number of tight games over the years, but sub-par coaching has lost it for them in the end. Houston Nutt's fire and intensity is something that could get the Rebs over the hump in a few close ones.

Arkansas is looking at a rebuilding phase, but they will hardly be a pushover. Still going to be a tough team to beat. I think the biggest thing for them is that they need some guys to emerge as playmakers now that their two superstars from past seasons (D-Mac and Jones) are gone to the NFL.

[KHVols1387]

Good article - and pretty fair.

LSU certainly has the best bunch of linemen in the SEC, and we all know that games are won in the trenches. That could be a deciding factor that propels the Tigers to their second straight SEC Title game. What could be a deal-breaker for them is the schedule, though. Having to play UF, SC, and UGA from the East (in three consecutive weeks, by the way) in addition to all the traditional opponents from the West is a tough task. That's where the door could open for Auburn.

Auburn gets most of their big games at home. The most difficult road challenge doesn't come until that showdown in T-town on November 29th.

I don't think the off-season arrests for Alabama were really worth mentioning - most of the guys who have been in trouble have been disciplined properly. Saban is still trimming the deadwood, so to speak. The guys who want to do things right will do things right. Those who don't will be shown the door.

Alabama's biggest problem for its West chances isn't off-the-field problems. Every team has those (granted, Alabama has had more than its fair share in the last 12 months). The Tide's biggest question mark is the overall depth and talent compared to the likes of LSU and Auburn. I know the saying gets old, but we still "aren't quite there yet". The schedule is difficult too. Road games at Arky, UGA, UT, and LSU is tough. If there is any silver lining, it's that we have a senior at QB, which normally proves beneficial in this conference.

Miss. State and Ole Miss could both go bowling this year, can't remember the last time that happened in the same season. The Bullies and the Rebs could play the "spoiler" role and ruin someone's SEC chances late in the season. Croom's teams always have that "never say die" attitude, while Ole Miss has been in a number of tight games over the years, but sub-par coaching has lost it for them in the end. Houston Nutt's fire and intensity is something that could get the Rebs over the hump in a few close ones.

Arkansas is looking at a rebuilding phase, but they will hardly be a pushover. Still going to be a tough team to beat. I think the biggest thing for them is that they need some guys to emerge as playmakers now that their two superstars from past seasons (D-Mac and Jones) are gone to the NFL.

Nice post UAdan. I agree that it was a good article. I do like Auburn and LSU to fight for the division however I could see both Alabama and Mississippi State pulling off some big wins to shake the division up a little bit. Alabama has the talent with their recent recruiting class but it will probably be a few years for them to establish depth and experience to consistently compete with both Auburn and LSU. Alabama seems to be well on their way.

[UAdan]

Nice post UAdan. I agree that it was a good article. I do like Auburn and LSU to fight for the division however I could see both Alabama and Mississippi State pulling off some big wins to shake the division up a little bit. Alabama has the talent with their recent recruiting class but it will probably be a few years for them to establish depth and experience to consistently compete with both Auburn and LSU. Alabama seems to be well on their way.

Well said, KHVols. Bama is definitely on the way up, but still not quite on the same level as the Tigers of the West. Give it another year or two, though, and we'll be at that level once again.

Your Tennessee team could make a serious impact as to who wins the West, too, seeing is how the Vols play both Alabama and Auburn this year. It's good to see UT on Auburn's schedule again. That's one of the most intriguing East/West matchups for 2008, in my book.

And a great point made by WarEagle73 in the other thread - the Auburn/UT game follows the Auburn/LSU game, whereas the Vols will have just faced Florida. How Auburn and UT respond to such mentally/emotionally draining games the previous week could determine who wins that one.

Also looking forward to the Bama/UT game. The Vols will be out for blood after last year's result, and it's in Knoxville. I expect a battle.

Can't wait for the season to get here.

[timNem]

the telling fact for Bama this year is that we have a total of 10 seniors on the roster, next year that number will more than double. I think we can have an improvement over last year with having another year under Saban and another past Shula. Experience and leadership is what it takes to win consistently, I think we will be a little improved in those areas but there is just not enough experience across the board. I do think we will win some of those heart-breakers that we lost last year

[Soccaplayamdg07]

Wow. It's been a while since every post in a thread has been worth reading. Incredible stuff, guys. This thread alone has gotten me pumped up for the season. Looking at it these matchups are incredible, but it only stresses the importance of every game. If a team loses to one that "its not supposed to," some of these games might not have as big an impact as one would think in the preseason. It's completely possible and maybe even probable that MSU or Ole Miss pulls an "upset" over an AU, UA, or LSU. After all, this is the SEC. LSU (the national champions) lost to Arkansas and Kentucky! Who saw that coming? I think these big games will be huge just like everyone here, but it's the team that shows up week in and week out for the games they've "already won" in the media's eyes. That team will come out on top. Coaches must keep their teams focused every week and not overlook any team. I LOVE THE SEC!

[UAdan]

Wow. It's been a while since every post in a thread has been worth reading. Incredible stuff, guys. This thread alone has gotten me pumped up for the season. Looking at it these matchups are incredible, but it only stresses the importance of every game. If a team loses to one that "its not supposed to," some of these games might not have as big an impact as one would think in the preseason. It's completely possible and maybe even probable that MSU or Ole Miss pulls an "upset" over an AU, UA, or LSU. After all, this is the SEC. LSU (the national champions) lost to Arkansas and Kentucky! Who saw that coming? I think these big games will be huge just like everyone here, but it's the team that shows up week in and week out for the games they've "already won" in the media's eyes. That team will come out on top. Coaches must keep their teams focused every week and not overlook any team. I LOVE THE SEC!

Absolutely true, a new battle's gonna present itself each week for every team. There are no certainties in this conference. :thumpsup:

[shk999]

I honestly think it comes down to Bama and AU for the West. Last year LSU made it to Atlanta (and they deserved to be there) with very close wins over the Alabama teams. It could have gone either way but in the end, LSU was the better team. In 09, I expect UA and AU to be much improved while LSU will have a tough time replacing key playmakers. I also think once again LSU will have a tough D-line but Bama's O-line will be better, possibly the best in the SEC. Cant count MSU out either, they have been getting better and better under Croom's leadership. Ark and Ole Miss, hard to tell, although winning the West in 09 seems unlikely IMO.