Belmont

[Seppeh]

So who is excited for the Belmont Stakes this Saturday!!

Probably no one, cause I think I'm the only person alive that cares about this sport. Or it sure feels like it.

I'm pulling for any and all of Todd Pletcher's horses. This man needs a triple crown win!

And I didn't know where to put this since there is no horse racing sub-forum here. So feel free to move it.

[Seppeh]

Post Position: 1
Imawildandcrazyguy
Trainer: William Kaplan
Jockey: Mark Guidry

Plusses: He exceeded expectations when fourth at 28-1 in the Kentucky Derby, finishing a mere half-length behind eventual Preakness winner Curlin and did so after racing ten wide on the far turn. He'll probably like the Belmont distance, which is not something that can be said for all the entrants. Based on Beyer figures, the Derby was his best lifetime race, so there's reason to believe he's on the improve.

Minuses: A winner of just two of 12 lifetime starts, with his only victories coming last year in maiden and allowance events at Calder. He stepped into tougher company this year and hasn't fared well. After a second-place finish to kick off the year in the Risen Star, he's failed to hit the board in his next three tries. Trainer Bill Kaplan is only 2-for-34 this year and doesn't have the experience or track record of the likes of Steve Asmussen or Todd Pletcher. A 97 Beyer won't get it done. He's going to have to run a lot faster Saturday to score the upset.

Worth a wager? For whatever reason, ridiculous longshots in Triple Crown races never go off at huge odds. This is a 100-1 shot who will go off at 25-1 or so. Can't see him winning or even hitting the board.

Post Position: 2
Tiago
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Jockey: Mike Smith

Plusses: Giacomo's little brother is coming into the Belmont the right way. After a fair effort in the Derby, he passed the Preakness and was pointed for this spot. He has been working regularly, including a stamina-building, one-mile work May 27. Trainer John Shirreffs is no dummy and jockey Mike Smith has won an awful lot of races at Belmont Park. With a win in the Santa Anita Derby, he and Curlin are the only male starters in the race who have won a Grade 1. He looks like the type of horse who is sitting on a big race and will like the Belmont Stakes distance. He should run better than he did in the Derby. The question is, how much better?

Minuses: He beat a weak field in the Santa Anita Derby and, though he was running on at the end, lost to six horses in the Derby. Probably, he's simply not good enough. He'll come from way off the pace, which usually is the kiss of death in the Belmont. His Best Beyer figure is a 100, which puts him well behind Curlin.

Worth a wager? If you just can't bring yourself to bet on one of the three favorites (Curlin, Hard Spun and Rags to Riches), then Tiago might just be the horse for you. He'll be a halfway decent price and him winning is not an impossibility. Is certainly the type of horse you want to include on the back end of your trifecta tickets.

Post Position: 3
Curlin
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Robby Albarado

Plusses: There's little doubt that he's the best horse in the race and it's quite possible we haven't seen his very best yet. He was good in the Derby and very good in the Preakness and now doesn't have to worry about his main rival, Street Sense. And, with the way he blew past Hard Spun in the Preakness, it's hard to imagine him finishing behind that one in the Belmont. With a 111 Beyer in the Preakness, he's the fastest horse in the race. This could be a superstar in the making.

Minuses: The main question with Curlin is whether or not he will bounce or react after his race in the Preakness. Horses are not machines and they can't run their best every time out. He could be adversely affected from what had to be a tough race for him. The only other question is the distance. He looks like he will handle it fine, but, with all these horses, none of whom have ever gone a mile and a half, you never know.

Worth a wager? He'll probably be about 4-5, meaning he'll pay $3.60 or so for a $2 win bet should he win. There are a lot of people out there who never bet such low price horses, but don't be one of them. If you think he's going to win, bet on him. Isn't it better to win $1.60 than to lose?

Post Position: 4
C P West
Trainer: Nick Zito
Jockey: Edgar Prado

Plusses: The biggest thing this horse has going for him is his connections. Prado and Zito are among the best and they have already teamed to pull off a stunning Belmont upset when knocking off Smarty Jones in 2004 with Birdstone. This one is a well-bred horse who didn't embarrass himself when fourth in the Preakness.

Minuses: He may not be good enough or fast enough. His 102 Beyer figure in the Preakness was by far his best. Prior to that, his top number was a 92. He's only won one race in his six-race career and that was a six-furlong maiden in his debut. This is a horse who could get better, but he doesn't look ready for this challenge.

Worth a wager? Only if you have to bet a longshot. The chances of him winning are rather slim, but he will be a decent price. But don't be surprised if he sneaks in there for third.

Post Position: 5
Slew's Tizzy
Trainer: Gregory Fox
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano

Plusses: Trainer Fox is one of the better unknown trainers in the game. A former veterinarian, he has won with 22 percent of his starters this year and clearly knows what he is doing. Once Fox took the blinkers off of Slew's Tizzy, he's been a different horse, winning the Lexington and the Lone Star Derby. An improving colt, he's earned the right to take the jump into tougher company.

Minuses: He's never won over a fast dirt track, only on slop and one Polytrack. Not only has he never tried a mile and a half, he's never raced beyond a mile and a sixteenth. There are no assurances whatsoever that he can handle the distance. Though jockey Rafael Bejarano is no slouch, it can't help that he's losing Robby Albarado to Curlin. The one time he ran at Belmont, he was seventh, beaten 16 ¾ lengths.

Worth a wager? Why not? Outside of the three favorites, this is probably the best horse in the field. He seems to be improving with every race and might have a chance at a fair price.

Post Position: 6
Hard Spun
Trainer: Larry Jones
Jockey: Garrett Gomez

Plusses: He's made every dance and he's run well every time. Though Curlin beat him in the Preakness, don't forget that he finished 5 ¾ lengths in front of Curlin in the Kentucky Derby. He's got tactical speed, which is a big plus in the Belmont Stakes. Belmont winners always seem to be well placed early. No knock on Mario Pino, but the switch to the more accomplished Garrett Gomez has to be a plus. By Danzig out of a Turkoman mare, he should have no problem with the distance. He's a consistent horse who tries every time

Minuses: Not every horse can hold up to the Triple Crown grind. In his third race in five weeks, he could be due for a bad day. Though he ran well in both the Derby and Preakness, he didn't win either and might be a shade below the crop's two big guns, Street Sense and Curlin.

Worth a wager? He won't be much of a price and he will probably have a hard time beating Curlin. Not a great win wager. But it's hard to see him finishing off the board, so you're taking a big chance if you leave him off your exotic tickets.

Post Position: 7
Rags to Riches
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez

Plusses: She's a terrific filly and clearly the leader of her division. After failing to break her maiden in her one start in 2006, she's ripped off four straight this year, including three straight Grade 1 wins. She's one classy lady. Pletcher has had a terrible time winning a Triple Crown race, so maybe he's due. By a Belmont winner (A.P. Indy) out of a dam (Better Than Honour) who produced a Belmont winner (Jazil), she has the perfect pedigree to handle the Belmont distance. Winning with 34 percent of his starters at the current Belmont meet, Pletcher is on fire.

Minuses: She's a filly and fillies just don't win this race. The last one to do it was Tanya in 1905.Since then, 10 have tried and lost, including some good ones, like Genuine Risk, Winning Colors and Silverbulletday. Forget about Pletcher being due. He's 0-for-28 in the Triple Crown and might just be cursed when it comes to these races. Jockey John Velazquez is another who hasn't won a Triple Crown race.

Worth a wager? If you think she's the real deal and can beat the big boys in Curlin and Hard Spun, go for it. She's got a lot of class and ability and might just be good enough. But take a stand. If you think she's going to be bullied by the boys, throw her out all together.

Lets go Rags to Riches!