ESPN's BCS analysis of the one-loss teams

[GatorNation]

USC (3) -- If the Trojans complete the season 11-1 they'll get the spot and deserve it. The one aspect of a schedule schools can control is nonconference games, and USC's lineup of Arkansas (10-1), Nebraska (8-3) and Notre Dame (10-1) is easily the toughest of the five contenders. (Michigan, by contrast, played Notre Dame, Vanderbilt and two Mid-American Conference teams.) Ten of USC's 12 opponents are bowl eligible. Argument against: The Trojans are the only one of the five to suffer a loss against an unranked team (Oregon State).

Michigan (4) -- Nobody among the five has a better "quality loss" than the Wolverines' 42-39 defeat at Ohio Stadium Saturday. Michigan has played three teams currently in the Top 25 and their combined records are 32-2. Argument against: The Wolverines didn't win their conference and haven't shown any ability to beat Ohio State and Troy Smith in three meetings. Why subject the Buckeyes to double jeopardy, having to beat a team they already handled once?

Arkansas (5) -- Nobody else in the discussion is unbeaten in conference play -- and most people would argue that the SEC is tougher this year than either the Big Ten or the Pac-10. And if the Razorbacks, already riding a 10-game winning streak, finish the season by beating LSU (No. 10 BCS) and Florida (No. 4 BCS) to go 12-1, nobody will be on a more powerful roll. Argument against: Can you lose by 36 points at home and play for a national title? Certainly not ahead of USC, the team that administered the thrashing in Fayetteville.

Florida (6) -- During one stretch the Gators played six straight teams now bowl eligible and lost only at Auburn, in a crazed environment, in a game clouded by a questionable call (and review) that tilted the game in the Tigers' favor. By season's end Florida will have played 10 bowl-eligible teams. Argument against: The Gators haven't dominated a single SEC opponent on the scoreboard and haven't played a single nonconference opponent currently ranked higher than 50th in the Sagarin ratings.

Notre Dame (7) -- If the Fighting Irish do what nobody has done in years now -- beat USC in L.A. Memorial Coliseum -- they'll have that going for them. It wouldn't be enough -- but what about a blowout of the Trojans? What if they turn around one of those 31-point losses to USC that got Ty Willingham fired? That would be the biggest victory by anyone on this list. The argument against: Same thing that's hindering Arkansas. No way you can rank the Irish ahead of a Michigan team that smoked them by 26 points in South Bend.

Thoughts?

[GatorHunter]

Great analysis...the team that plays OSU in the MNC game should be the team that wins out between USCw, UF, or Arky...if USCw and UF wins out...the Trojans have a better argument...although, it's hard for me to believe, with the pre-season hype that surrounds the SEC, that a 1-loss SEC team will not play in the MNC game. Before the season...we all hear, like most years, how tough the SEC is...then, as the season progresses and we all beat the everlovin' hell out of each other, the pundits move to the Pac-10 and Big 10....only to come back to the SEC as the toughest conference in the following preseason.

[TaySC]

While I hate not having an SEC representative in the MNC, the analysis above looks right to me for the most part.

I certainly do not want to see a rematch and I think SoCal (if they beat Notre Dame, which they may not) has the best argument to get a shot at OSU.

What I did find interesting and what I said earlier and was ambushed for:
Argument against: The Gators haven't dominated a single SEC opponent on the scoreboard........ :whistle:

[GatorHunter]

Argument against: The Gators haven't dominated a single SEC opponent on the scoreboard........ :whistle:

I'm not going to ambush you, Tay...but what team in the SEC has dominated their SEC opponents? Not just this year, heck...in recent memory I can't remember an SEC "dominating" teams consistently....I know the argument is "a single" team...but, we beat LSU by 2 tds...Bama by 2 TDs...UT in Knoxville...a possible bowl-bound UK team by 19 points...a win is a win...should we have scored another vs Bama...we were on the 3 yrd line....point is, UF got the lead and played good defense...won the games...no doubt our offense has sputtered, but we're still the #7 offense in the country...but we've won the games vs SEC competition...you know, the SEC...supposedly the toughest conference out there.

[WallyGoat]

USC and UF have the best arguements for getting to play OSU for the national title.

USC did lose to an unranked Oregon State, but only by 2 points, on the road. That beats UF's loss to AU by 10 points, but Auburn was ranked at the time.

IMHO, I think, if USC beats ND by a good margin at home, the will jump Michigan in the polls, and remain #2 for the rest of the season (barring a loss to UCLA).

If Florida does win out, over FSU and Ark, then they'll be Sugar Bowl bound.

If Arkansas wins out over LSU and UF, then they'll be in the Sugar Bowl.

But we could have a repeat of 2003. The AP is not a BCS component, and could elect their own Champion, should USC beat OSU in the Title game. Then USC, OSU, and UF/ARK will each have one loss, like LSU, OU, and USC did in 2003.

I would love to see UF or Ark in the Title game against OSU, to represent the SEC. If not, we may be looking at a whole nother year of talks of a playoff system.

But as far as ND and Mich go, If ND beats USC, I believe the computers will still be in favor of Michigan since they had a huge win over the Irish. Michigan may or may not be surpassed in the rankings, leading to a much dreaded rematch (according to some) of OSU/UM.

[GatorHunter]

USC and UF have the best arguements for getting to play OSU for the national title.

USC did lose to an unranked Oregon State, but only by 2 points, on the road. That beats UF's loss to AU by 10 points, but Auburn was ranked at the time.

I think the fact that Oreg. State was unranked overshadows the "difference" in point losses...esp. since Auburn scored with no time left as UF was trying to lateral...Auburn was winning by only 4 at the time. Either way, USCw plays a tougher OOC schedule...thanks to f$u losing 5 games this year.

[WallyGoat]

I think the fact that Oreg. State was unranked overshadows the "difference" in point losses...esp. since Auburn scored with no time left as UF was trying to lateral...Auburn was winning by only 4 at the time. Either way, USCw plays a tougher OOC schedule...thanks to f$u losing 5 games this year.

That is true. I forgot about the SOS playing a part in the BCS computers rankings.

[tecmsu06]

Arkansas has no chance... UF has no chance.. this forces me to pull for USC, because Notre Dame would not deserve playing in any kind of BCS game, even if they beat USC.

[WarEagler]

Unless USCw loses they are playing and I for one think they are the only team that could possibly beat OSU. People love to hate on USCw but if you would actually watch one of their games you could see why they are always at the top. Not to mention their team this year is loaded with freshman!

[scfan5338]

I honestly think if USCw wins out than they deserve to be in the National Championship game as much as I hate to say it. I'm a fan of Florida when they play anyone but USCe. USCw's schedule was extremely tough something like 4th toughest schedule in the country. If they win out I think they deserve it.

[tecmsu06]

that's why I'm pulling for them... THEY atleast would deserve a shot at OSU, and I think Carroll could pull it. They are a good team, I get a little bored of watching them dominate from time to time, but atleast they are beatable now. Seriously though, they have played tough teams this year, Notre Dame wouldn't deserve any kind of BCS game.

[razorhead]

Arkansas needs only to beat UF to get the Sugar Bowl. The LSU game is meaningless for that.

Obviously for the Hogs to have any shot at all they must beat LSU and UF, USC has to beat ND, the USC needs to lose to UCLA. That should get us in provided the computer ratings do what they should. However, it looks like there will be a rematch of OSU - Mich. if USC doesn't get in. It's time for a playoff.

[GatorNation]

If style points are most important, then we should send Tennessee to the MNC.

They had the most impressive win of the conference this season, imo. (Georgia)