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[Fro Daddy]

The one thing that comes up in nearly every discussion about Mizzou's move to the SEC is the SEC defenses. How will MU fare against the SEC teams D and how will they fare against our O.

This is something that cant be proven either way till the 'rubber hits the road' as they say. I personally think it goes alittle bit of both ways. The SEC D is good, but the O as a whole is not. The Big12 O is good, but the D as a whole is not.  What is up for debate is if those are because of the other....

If very plain terms, does the poor offensive play in the SEC lead to high defensive rankings? Or do dominate defenses lead to poor offensive rankings?

For example, the SEC has 5 teams that had D's ranked in the top 10. Very impressive. They also had 6 O's that ranked 98th and worse. Thats horrible. The avg D rank for the SEC is 31 out of 120. Avg O is 82 of 120.  The SEC had the 1,2,3 & 5th ranked Ds in the country. They also had the 104, 105, 114 & 118th ranked O's in the country. 4 of the top 5 of all D-1 teams, and 4 of the bottom 16 of all D-1 teams. The interesting part to me is the SEC vs Big12 Ranks. O vs D. SEC - 82 vs 31. Big12 - 36 vs 80. Nearly the identical difference.

Missouri was ranked 61 in total yrds allowed on D. 43rd in pts allowed. But they also played the #2,3,5,7 & 13 best offenses in CFB. The avg O ranking they played was 35th in the country. The best SEC O was ranked 29th. Infact Missouri's avg O played against ranks better than 10 of the 12 SEC teams O rank.  Mizzou was 12th in the country in total O, that was good for 5th in conference.

Missouri ranked in the top 3 in nearly every defensive catagory in the Big12. With the exeption of Pass D (they were 5th). Missouri was considered a strong defensive team in the big12. But does that mean anything? Do the big12 D's suck, or are they just matched up with some of the best offenses in CFB?

Arky fans point to the ATM game as proof of the big12's awful D. They put up 581 yrds of O. 510 of that was through the air. Very impressive. They moved at will in the second half of that game against what would be considered a middle of the pack D in the big12.  However, what is overlooked is that ATM went for 628 yards on Arky. Including 381 yrds rushing. ATM is the 4th or 5th best big12 O against the 4th or 5th worst SEC D.  In other words, and avg big12 O VS. an avg SEC D.

In Mu's 'big12 shootout' against ATM, Missouri held ATM to 128 fewer total yards and 200 fewer rushing yards. Just something to nibble on....

What does all of this mean?  I have no clue. MU's total D ranking would have only been better than 2 SEC schools last year. Their O would have easily ranked 1st. I dont know what will happen, but If i had to guess, you will see both numbers move closer to each other. I think Mu's #11 O rank with fall back and I think their #61 D rank will move up. The D's they will face are better, the O's they will face are worse.

To me that is the only way to look at it till we have the proof. You cant have it both ways. You cant claim ultimate D for the SEC with so many bad offenses, unless you are willing to credit the big12 offenses for the medocre D rankings. If the O's in the SEC are hurt by dynamic and dominate D's, Then the same must ring true that the D's in the Big12 are hurt by the dynamic and dominate O's.

Anyway those are just some random numbers and thoughts. Much to debate for the six months till the season start for us Tiger fans.

Edited by Fro Daddy, 08 February 2012 - 10:01 AM.

[bmccall]

Interesting concept.

Playing in the SEC before making assumptions is also an interesting concept.

[Fro Daddy]

bmccall, on 08 February 2012 - 10:03 AM, said:

Interesting concept.

Playing in the SEC before making assumptions is also an interesting concept.

That would be why I said that its really just an opinion or guess untill "the rubber hits the road".  Alot is yet to be proven one way or the other. I was just kind of a rambling of thoughts and ideas more than anything else.

And bmccall, lets face it...its the off season & I am looking for time to kill.

Edited by Fro Daddy, 08 February 2012 - 10:11 AM.

[bmccall]

Fro Daddy, on 08 February 2012 - 10:10 AM, said:

That would be why I said that its really just an opinion or guess untill "the rubber hits the road".  Alot is yet to be proven one way or the other. I was just kid of a rambling of thoughts and ideas more than anything else.

And bmccall, lets face it...its he off season & I am looking for time to kill.

Understood.

All I know is that before South Carolina played in the SEC, they had beaten SEC teams before. But were in for a rude awakening with the conference beatings week-in and week-out.

Missouri could come in and impress. I'm open minded to the possibility of any outcome. But I am saying that you can't estimate the way of life each week on gameday for these teams SEC Football brings until you're here. Once you play some games, then you can get out the measuring stick.


Same goes for you A&M.

[Fro Daddy]

fully undestood. I have no idea what to expect. I have told a number of friends that I think we are 4-4 next year. But to be completely honest I have no idea. We are playing in staduims for the first time. A number of our opponents have open weeks before they play us (3 or 4 if i remember right). New teams, new challenges. Everything is new to us besides ATM.

It will be years before we have a 'good' idea of just what to expect going into a season. But whats the fun in trying to guess if I have to wait that long. LOL

[chunkybeefstu]

I agree with you, 4-4.  Maybe 5-3.  I'm staying cautiously optimistic until we actually play in the SEC.  Those numbers you put together are interesting though.  They will be completely discounted here, but interesting.

[zartan]

The Tennessee game won't be much of a challenge for you, that's all I know

[TrueGCFan]

Strong post.

[L.A.Hog]

Arky fans point to the ATM game as proof of the big12's awful D. They put up 581 yrds of O. 510 of that was through the air. Very impressive. They moved at will in the second half of that game against what would be considered a middle of the pack D in the big12.  However, what is overlooked is that ATM went for 628 yards on Arky. Including 381 yrds rushing. ATM is the 4th or 5th best big12 O against the 4th or 5th worst SEC D.  In other words, and avg big12 O VS. an avg SEC D.(quote)----------



Petrino fired our defensive coordinator.Defense wins in the SEC  and we need to catch up.

Edited by L.A.Hog, 09 February 2012 - 07:16 PM.

[nooneLT]

meh, we have teams that have a crappy offense but we also have teams with really good offenses. It's a myth to say that SEC has a weak offense when we have teams that are averaging close to 40 points a game.

[Fro Daddy]

nooneLT, on 09 February 2012 - 08:10 PM, said:

meh, we have teams that have a crappy offense but we also have teams with really good offenses. It's a myth to say that SEC has a weak offense when we have teams that are averaging close to 40 points a game.

While it is true that some of the SEC teams had a much higher rank in Scoring Avg over Total Yards Avg., it is also true that more than half of the conference was under the D-1 National Scoring average.

As with all avgs there are outliners. Alabama and LSU are for the SEC. Both rank among the nations best in both Defensive and Offensive scoring avgs. 1st in D and 20th on O for Bama and 2nd in D and 17th on O for LSU.

What I posted is not a end all be all by any means. Its just some stuff I thought was interesting. There will be cases where a team or teams will break a numbers trend. In this case it is clear when looking at some of the rankings why Alabama and LSU both did as well as they did, and why they ended the season playing in the game they did.

[jacobp]

L.A.Hog, on 09 February 2012 - 07:15 PM, said:

Arky fans point to the ATM game as proof of the big12's awful D. They put up 581 yrds of O. 510 of that was through the air. Very impressive. They moved at will in the second half of that game against what would be considered a middle of the pack D in the big12.  However, what is overlooked is that ATM went for 628 yards on Arky. Including 381 yrds rushing. ATM is the 4th or 5th best big12 O against the 4th or 5th worst SEC D.  In other words, and avg big12 O VS. an avg SEC D.(quote)----------



Petrino fired our defensive coordinator.Defense wins in the SEC  and we need to catch up.

They also don't account for being without Bequette, DD Jones, another starting D Linemen that escapes me, and two players in the secondary.

[Fro Daddy]

L.A.Hog, on 09 February 2012 - 07:15 PM, said:

Petrino fired our defensive coordinator.Defense wins in the SEC  and we need to catch up.

This is true no matter what conference you are in.  Even as bad as Okla St defense was in total yards they made the big plays they were 29th in sacks, 22 in TFL, 1st in Fumble recovery, 2nd in INTS, 1st in total takeaways and takeaway Avg per game & 12th in redzone D.  If your D cant stop someone or make the big plays to take the ball away your going to have a hard time being an elite team in any conference

[jacobp]

That is true. Our defense struggled against Bama the entire game.  We weren't big enough to stop them.  With LSU, our defense actually played well until midway through the 3rd quarter, then they ran out of gas and the rout was on.

With aTm, we obviously didn't come out ready to play and got punched in the mouth in the first half.  Thankfully, our offense was able to keep us within striking distance.  Adjustments were made at the half and aTm's 2nd half possessions went punt, punt, punt, TO, punt, field goal, and were held to less than 200 yards in the second half where we outscored them 25-3

[Haymaker]

Fro Daddy, on 08 February 2012 - 09:57 AM, said:

The one thing that comes up in nearly every discussion about Mizzou's move to the SEC is the SEC defenses. How will MU fare against the SEC teams D and how will they fare against our O.

This is something that cant be proven either way till the 'rubber hits the road' as they say. I personally think it goes alittle bit of both ways. The SEC D is good, but the O as a whole is not. The Big12 O is good, but the D as a whole is not.  What is up for debate is if those are because of the other....

If very plain terms, does the poor offensive play in the SEC lead to high defensive rankings? Or do dominate defenses lead to poor offensive rankings?

For example, the SEC has 5 teams that had D's ranked in the top 10. Very impressive. They also had 6 O's that ranked 98th and worse. Thats horrible. The avg D rank for the SEC is 31 out of 120. Avg O is 82 of 120.  The SEC had the 1,2,3 & 5th ranked Ds in the country. They also had the 104, 105, 114 & 118th ranked O's in the country. 4 of the top 5 of all D-1 teams, and 4 of the bottom 16 of all D-1 teams. The interesting part to me is the SEC vs Big12 Ranks. O vs D. SEC - 82 vs 31. Big12 - 36 vs 80. Nearly the identical difference.

Missouri was ranked 61 in total yrds allowed on D. 43rd in pts allowed. But they also played the #2,3,5,7 & 13 best offenses in CFB. The avg O ranking they played was 35th in the country. The best SEC O was ranked 29th. Infact Missouri's avg O played against ranks better than 10 of the 12 SEC teams O rank.  Mizzou was 12th in the country in total O, that was good for 5th in conference.

Missouri ranked in the top 3 in nearly every defensive catagory in the Big12. With the exeption of Pass D (they were 5th). Missouri was considered a strong defensive team in the big12. But does that mean anything? Do the big12 D's suck, or are they just matched up with some of the best offenses in CFB?

Arky fans point to the ATM game as proof of the big12's awful D. They put up 581 yrds of O. 510 of that was through the air. Very impressive. They moved at will in the second half of that game against what would be considered a middle of the pack D in the big12.  However, what is overlooked is that ATM went for 628 yards on Arky. Including 381 yrds rushing. ATM is the 4th or 5th best big12 O against the 4th or 5th worst SEC D.  In other words, and avg big12 O VS. an avg SEC D.

In Mu's 'big12 shootout' against ATM, Missouri held ATM to 128 fewer total yards and 200 fewer rushing yards. Just something to nibble on....

What does all of this mean?  I have no clue. MU's total D ranking would have only been better than 2 SEC schools last year. Their O would have easily ranked 1st. I dont know what will happen, but If i had to guess, you will see both numbers move closer to each other. I think Mu's #11 O rank with fall back and I think their #61 D rank will move up. The D's they will face are better, the O's they will face are worse.

To me that is the only way to look at it till we have the proof. You cant have it both ways. You cant claim ultimate D for the SEC with so many bad offenses, unless you are willing to credit the big12 offenses for the medocre D rankings. If the O's in the SEC are hurt by dynamic and dominate D's, Then the same must ring true that the D's in the Big12 are hurt by the dynamic and dominate O's.

Anyway those are just some random numbers and thoughts. Much to debate for the six months till the season start for us Tiger fans.

good stuff........it is a chicken/egg when pondering the defensive/offensive stats so honestly Missouri will be a great way to answer some of those questions