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2014 college football prediction

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#1
Noah

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1. The top two spots are no surprise. Really, the No. 3 spot isn't, either. However, No. 4 caught me off-guard. South Carolina is a projections darling, with a lovely recent history, a healthy number of returning starters, and decent recruiting. The Gamecocks lead an outright MASS of teams projected between 249.0 and 253.0 (the difference between No. 3 and No. 4: 12.3 points; the difference between No. 4 and No. 11: 4.6 points), and a healthy number of returning starters (14 by Steele's count) pushes them over the edge for now. This is interesting because the eight starters they lose are almost the eight starters you could name right offhand. They'll return running back Mike Davis and a potentially awesome offensive line, but what they lose in star power, they make up for in sheer numbers. I'll be curious to see what happens to this projection when I take things like Draft Points (hello, Jadeveon) into account. A little bit of slippage could knock SC all the way out of the top 10. But for now, hello, No. 4.

2. Why yes, the SEC does have the No. 1, No. 4, No. 5, No. 7, No. 8, No. 12, No. 21, No. 26, No. 29, and No. 31 teams. Auburn and Missouri, last year's SEC title game participants, are projected sixth and 10th in the conference ... and are both in the top 31 overall.

3. UCLA is still getting held down by Rick Neuheisel. Even with a five-year history weighted heavily in favor of the last couple of seasons, the Bruins still come in only 43 in that figure. They should finish closer to fourth (the Returning Starters projection) than 43rd. Meanwhile, Boise State is the anti-UCLA, still ranking fourth overall in weighted 5-year history because of the awesomeness of 2009-11.

4. Top three projected teams in each conference:
* AAC: UCF (No. 24), Houston (No. 41), Cincinnati (No. 54)
* ACC: Florida State (No. 2), Clemson (No. 14), Louisville (No. 20)
* Big 12: Oklahoma (No. 9), Oklahoma State (No. 16), Baylor (No. 25)
* Big Ten: Ohio State (No. 10), Michigan State (No. 13), Wisconsin (No. 19)
* Conference USA: Marshall (No. 59), UTSA (No. 75), Rice (No. 88)
* MAC: NIU (No. 51), Toledo (No. 53), Bowling Green (No. 60)
* MWC: Boise State (No. 18), Fresno State (No. 46), Nevada (No. 62)
* Pac-12: Oregon (No. 3), Stanford (No. 6), USC (No. 11)
* SEC: Alabama (No. 1), South Carolina (No. 4), LSU (No. 5)
* Sun Belt: UL-Lafayette (No. 79), Arkansas State (No. 84), South Alabama (No. 92)


In Phil Steele parlance, I'm using THREE SETS OF POWER RANKINGS. Below are the projections. (NOTE: By the time the FO Almanac rolls around, we'll have come up with rough projections for the FBS newbies -- Georgia Southern, Appalachian State, Old Dominion -- but for now these are just the FBS teams that were also FBS teams last year.)                                                                                                                            

2014 College football rankings: Initial S&P+ Projections - Football Study Hall

Edited by Noah, 10 February 2014 - 02:23 PM.

After everything is said and done, more is said than done. - Noah
Formerly known as Noah.Dreams

#2
hog_heaven

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Arkansas wins a conference game.

#3
L.A.Hog

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View Posthog_heaven, on 10 February 2014 - 08:51 PM, said:

Arkansas wins a conference game.

Gotta start somewhere.There's a possibility we can be pretty competitive this season.

Iron out our qb troubles and stiffen up our secondary and linebackers and we could ruin a season or two for someone.

I want to win the first game and go from there.

#4
MrGamecockFan

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I like that #4...

Edited by MrGamecockFan, 10 February 2014 - 11:07 PM.

Go Cocks!!!

2012 Homer of the Year 1st Loser (AKA Runner-Up)

#5
possumslayer

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Tennessee will beat usce again this year....

#6
dcbl

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View Posthog_heaven, on 10 February 2014 - 08:51 PM, said:

Arkansas wins a conference game.

y'all have the toughest schedule that is possible

starting out against Auburn then Bama then aTm with Texas tech thrown in that mix is BRUTAL

Hope you find a way to beat the Aggies in that opening stretch...
They don't think it be like it is, but it do!

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#7
bbqit

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View Posthog_heaven, on 10 February 2014 - 08:51 PM, said:

Arkansas wins a conference game.

Can't hold a good team down
Du-te la dracu 'LSU

#8
bbqit

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USC will be as good as ever. This won't help muschamp. He must beat either them or ga for job security
Du-te la dracu 'LSU

#9
Dawgfan4life24

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View Postbbqit, on 11 February 2014 - 07:29 AM, said:

USC will be as good as ever. This won't help muschamp. He must beat either them or ga for job security

Lulz

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#10
Dawgfan4life24

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I really dont put too much in way too early preseason rankings.  Our offense will be dominant no question. I am finally excited to see our defense take the field. We finally cleaned house and brought in some very good coaches who all have their specialty.  Not to mention some damn find defensive talent just yearning to be developed.

Pruitt will have his hands full with this defense, but I've got all the confidence in the world he can get the job done.

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#11
RammaJamma

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Phil didn't get the memo the dynasty is over...
"I didn't come to Alabama to win 10 games a year and be a contender. I came here to win championships, Conference Championships, and National Championships. I love it here because that's not just what I want, but what this fan base expects." -Alabama Head Football Coach Nick Saban

ROLL TIDE!!

#12
MrGamecockFan

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View Postpossumslayer, on 11 February 2014 - 06:18 AM, said:

Tennessee will beat usce again this year....

God luck with that, but don't forget we get home field advantage this season!
Go Cocks!!!

2012 Homer of the Year 1st Loser (AKA Runner-Up)

#13
ALA2262

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View PostDawgfan4life24, on 11 February 2014 - 07:48 AM, said:

I really dont put too much in way too early preseason rankings.  Our offense will be dominant no question. I am finally excited to see our defense take the field. We finally cleaned house and brought in some very good coaches who all have their specialty.  Not to mention some damn find defensive talent just yearning to be developed.

Pruitt will have his hands full with this defense, but I've got all the confidence in the world he can get the job done.

"Our offense will be dominant no question"

You do realize you are returning only 5 starters on offense and replacing the QB? If your offense is dominant it will be because the TEN returning starters on defense, now with a real DC, is giving the offense the ball after every three plays and a punt.

#14
TrueGCFan

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View Posthog_heaven, on 10 February 2014 - 08:51 PM, said:

Arkansas wins a conference game.

Do you guys play UK?

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#15
TrueGCFan

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View PostDawgfan4life24, on 11 February 2014 - 07:48 AM, said:

I really dont put too much in way too early preseason rankings.  Our offense will be dominant no question. I am finally excited to see our defense take the field. We finally cleaned house and brought in some very good coaches who all have their specialty.  Not to mention some damn find defensive talent just yearning to be developed.

Pruitt will have his hands full with this defense, but I've got all the confidence in the world he can get the job done.

Not to be that guy, but this was the same thing said when Grantham was hired.  UGA has never lacked talent, but for whatever reason your defensive guys crap the bed way too much.

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