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[HFS]

I love our new coaches, recruiting class and the overall direction of the program but I'm not quite as optimistic as the average Auburn fan because our QB situation is still shit. We're gonna start one of; a talented kid with no common sense, a corner masquerading as a QB, a scrambler who threw 18 interceptions in JUCO ball, a raw true freshman or a kid that will ultimately end up as a receiver.

Best case: The JUCOs act as stop gaps for the defense, we run the ball well enough to mask our passing weaknesses and pull out close ones which would be about 8-4.

Worst case: Our QBs are shit, our discipline problems continue, no one can beat out Jake Holland which would be about 4-5 wins.

My prediction:

Washington State W - Leach is a good coach, but even our average d-line can disrupt his passing schemes. Add a Pac-12 defense and I think we start 1-0.

Arky State W - They've had a good stretch but they've just flat out had better coaches than their opponents. Moderately big win here.

Mississippi State L - Still feel like we'll get carved up by any decent QB and Russell has shown that he's decent. We got some good JUCO lineman coming in but our secondary is still patchwork and that's putting it nicely.

@ LSU L - LSU in death valley, where we haven't won since 1999. Can't imagine that changes.

Ole Miss L - Freeze is good, guys and he has an experienced QB with a higher ceiling than it looks.

Western Carolina W - Obvs.

@ Texas A&M  L - Also, obvs.

Florida Atlantic W - Out talent them for an ugly win.

@ Arky L - Until I see that our d-line is as talented and deep as we keep trying to pretend it is I can't pick us to beat a team that will play power run ball.

@ Tennessee W - I think Butch Jones is an upgrade but they've had too much attrition and they lack depth which is Malzahn's specialty.

Georgia L - I don't think UGA is that good this year but they're still better than us. I actually think this is Richt's last year.

Alabama L - Barring a nuclear bomb hitting T-town this is pretty self-explanatory.

5-7 (1-7) is what I see. We'll be much improved, but I can't imagine our fanbase would be too happy with it. This is what happens when you play in a conference with 12 teams that could all win 8+ games. Especially when your QB situation is as bad as ours.

Once Jeremy Johnson settles into the job I think we're bound for great things, but that won't happen this year.

Edited by HFS, 13 February 2013 - 06:01 PM.

[HFS]

In regards to @jacobp,  had the same fears about this being just a cookie cutter staff of what we just had, but from all accounts (even the most cynical) have said that Malzahn is more cold blooded than we ever thought both as a coach and recruiter. The new workout program has had kids literally say they've never been put through anything like that in their lives.

I know him bringing Dyer to Ark St looks bad, but there's really no way of knowing what length of leash he had him on. I heard he was on a 1 strike system, but his 1 strike ending up being a big one.

I feel like I'm relatively objective when it comes to auburn, so I hope you take my word for it. I know you don't like Malzahn as a coach because of his offense but he definitely isn't Gene Chizik.

[HFS]

RebelFan4Life, on 13 February 2013 - 06:01 PM, said:

Why you care so much about us?

Y'all have put a target on your back with all the recent publicity. I don't mean that as positive or negative but when you put yourself in the open there's gonna be some negative backlash.

[HFS]

That's the most objective Auburn prediction I've ever had.

[JoeGator]

RebelFan4Life, on 13 February 2013 - 06:14 PM, said:

Yeah. Seems like some people are just so determined to put us right back in the toilet where we've been cause of the recent publicity and minor success

Ole Miss hasn't had minor success since 2009.

[JoeGator]

I think Auburn struggles real bad again this year.
At least they won't be a hard to watch this time around though.

[Mizzou_Fan]

JoeGator, on 13 February 2013 - 06:21 PM, said:

Ole Miss hasn't had minor success since 2009.

I saw that you posted in this thread and I instantly knew you were going to say something negative about Ole Miss.

[JoeGator]

Mizzou_Fan, on 13 February 2013 - 06:22 PM, said:

I saw that you posted in this thread and I instantly knew you were going to say something negative about Ole Miss.

Do you disagree?

[Mizzou_Fan]

JoeGator, on 13 February 2013 - 06:23 PM, said:

Do you disagree?

No, just saying that I knew that you would be saying something negative about Ole Miss because you have been doing it a lot lately.

[JoeGator]

Mizzou_Fan, on 13 February 2013 - 06:24 PM, said:

No, just saying that I knew that you would be saying something negative about Ole Miss because you have been doing it a lot lately.

Eh, I like to put them back into their place when they get carried away.
Apparently no one else will.

Edited by JoeGator, 13 February 2013 - 06:26 PM.

[JoeGator]

RebelFan4Life, on 13 February 2013 - 06:27 PM, said:

For where we were in 2010 and 2011, 7-6 with a bowl win is definitely minor success

Well comparatively of course. I definitely see what you mean, but I know Ole Miss fans wouldn't look at the season in a vacuum and say it was a success, you know?

[JoeGator]

RebelFan4Life, on 13 February 2013 - 06:28 PM, said:

Ok.... since you want to play that game.. Carried away with what? An 8-4 preseason prediction? Please....
Why won't you just admit what everyone else knows.. You have a boner and man crush on Dan Mullen. Nothing more, nothing less

I've said a bunch of times that I really like Mullen.
But he doesn't have anything to do with me ragging on you guys from time to time.

And come on man.
And 8-4 preseason prediction in February is probably the least homerish thing y'all have come up with in a while.
No problem with that idea at all.

[JoeGator]

RebelFan4Life, on 13 February 2013 - 06:32 PM, said:

Ok then.. That's where I stand for next season. But I guess you mean our fans on here for some other reason. That's fair cause we've talked plenty of shat recently.

See, I know you all of all people can tell when I'm actually being a dick.

[HFS]

RebelFan4Life, on 13 February 2013 - 06:14 PM, said:

Yeah. Seems like some people are just so determined to put us right back in the toilet where we've been cause of the recent publicity and minor success

Well, there's been a lot of hysteria (for lack of a better word) with the Ole Miss fanbase lately like there was with us when we started 5-0 in 2009.

That recruiting class is great on paper but 5*s live up to the hype less than half the time, you never know.

JoeGator, on 13 February 2013 - 06:21 PM, said:

I think Auburn struggles real bad again this year.
At least they won't be a hard to watch this time around though.

I think we'll take care of business against teams we're better than with Malzahn's true HUNH, but we're gonna struggle with teams that can beat us up in the trenches. Our o-line is full of talent but they're all still young and our center is a racist hick that doesn't know the difference between a 9 iron and a 9 mm.

Once we have Gus' personnel and a QB with talent AND experience, we'll be fine. Hope fully either Nick Marshall (Or less likely, Frazier) is competent enough to be a two year starter so we can redshirt JJ or JJ gets thrown in sooner than expected and plays well enough within the offense for us to compete. A good QB can mask any weakness, Cam is the perfect example.

I can't assume we'll win any close games until I feel like we can mount a decent drive centered around a QB.

[HFS]

I look at it like this @RebelFan4Life.

There are a lot of great examples of recent recruiting classes that don't realize even a tenth of their potential (2002 Miami, 2003 UF, 2003 Miami, 2004 F$U, 2008 ND, etc etc etc) but my favorite example is 2007 USC.

They were the number 1 class with both of the top two in the ESPN 150 signed (Joe McKnight and Chris Galippo, both busts) as well as being credited with SIX 5* prospects (McKnight, Galippo, Everson Griffen, Ronald Johnson, Kris O'Dowd and Marc Tyler[they had 10 on Scout]), none of which lived up to anything close to their potential.

Of their TEN 4* prospects, none were drafted.

The only 5* players that were drafted were McKnight and Griffen. Both 4th rounders. The most productive player they got from that class was Damian Williams who transferred in with Mustain.

In the two years that these prospects would have been juniors and seniors they went 17-9.

You can also look at the 2007 class in it's entirety. These are the 5*s that panned out.

ESPN:

They didn't have star ratings in 2007 but only 1 of the top 20 prospects was a first round pick (Eric Berry) and only 5 others (Golden Tate, Ryan Mallett, Noel Devine, Carlos Dunlap, Arrelious Benn) could really even be considered as panned out.

Rivals:

Of their 29 five star recruits only 2 of them were first round picks (Eric Berry and Cam Newton).

( In fact, from 2007-2011 Rivals has had 144 5* prospects of which from 2007-2009 there's been only 12 first round picks and from 2010-2011 there's only 8 that are currently considered to have first round potential, that's a 14% success rate)

If you do the math that gives Nkemdiche, Tunsil and Treadwell a .003% chance of all panning out (Meaning being a 1st round pick), a .02% chance of 2 of them panning out and of course a 14% chance of all three.