Makers & Takers: Death Spiral States - Page 2 - Water Fountain - SECTalk.com - Page 2

Jump to content

Welcome to SECTalk.com

Welcome to SECTalk.com -- The Home of 6 Straight National Titles!

You are currently accessing our site as a guest which means you can't access all of our features such as social groups, sports betting, and many more. By joining our free community you will have access to all of these great features as well as to participating in our forums, contacting other members, and much more. Registration only takes a minute and SECTalk.com is absolutely free, so please join today!

If you have any problems registering or signing in, please contact us.


Countdown to Kickoff
0143026
DaysHoursMinutesSeconds
Countdown Jersey Thread


Latest Topics


Latest News


Top High Fived

Top Bettors


Makers & Takers: Death Spiral States

- - - - -

This topic has been archived. This means that you cannot reply to this topic.
19 replies to this topic

#16
GoldenRebel

GoldenRebel

    A Proud Swayze Crazy

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPip
  • Posts:
    19,668
  • Joined:
    May 2007
  • Cash:
    0
  • High Fives:
    8,858
Dammit @nova that was beautiful

#17
nova

nova

    Intergalactic planetary bulldawg!

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • Posts:
    8,410
  • Joined:
    Dec 2009
  • Cash:
    0
  • High Fives:
    3,745

View PostGoldenRebel, on 09 January 2013 - 10:25 AM, said:

Dammit @nova that was beautiful

I've been very pessimistic on our future for a while now simply based on our political inability to get our gov't financial house in order.  The more I've studied, the more I've come to understand that even if we do get our financial house in order, there are serious structural and demographic issues that will still sink us.

Hell, I can see the effects in my 401k, which I'm still putting money into for some unknown reason.  My overseas developing markets funds, are showing 10-15% growth rates.  My us based funds, <3%.  It's precisely because those overseas markets don't have these issues.  People are still working there and producing stuff.  They're not wasting their time and money on useless pursuits...

I honestly expect 401ks and IRAs to eventually be confiscated in a last ditch effort to shore up gov't books, which will just make all these problems worse....

Edited by nova, 09 January 2013 - 10:32 AM.


#18
SECorBust

SECorBust
  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • Posts:
    7,346
  • Joined:
    May 2007
  • Cash:
    0
  • High Fives:
    1,280
Forbes spin is pretty close to Fox's. Maybe they are not as good of places for the super rich to place their money, but drawing the line at an arbitrary "maker/taker" ratio of 1 doesn't make sense to me.  Say you have one state that comes in at .99 and one that comes in at 1.01 one makes the list as a good investment and one doesn't.  They are generalizing and ignoring the intricate details that can make or break an investment.  They do not show the math and the links go to the main websites, not to the direct content that they are referencing.  This is a spin piece.

Quote

Conning rates North Dakota the safest state to lend money to, Connecticut the most hazardous. A state qualifies for the Forbes death spiral list if its taker/maker ratio exceeds 1.0 and it resides in the bottom half of Conning’s ranking.

http://www.npr.org/2...n-oil-boom-town

Forbes tries to make it sound like these "Taker" states are aweful, but just because a state is a "maker" that does not make it a great place,  It may just mean that they are pillaging a natural resource.

Posted Image

Edited by SECorBust, 09 January 2013 - 11:27 AM.

Posted Image


#19
UKat

UKat

    Moderator

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • Posts:
    7,219
  • Joined:
    Sep 2006
  • Cash:
    0
  • High Fives:
    981

View Postnova, on 09 January 2013 - 10:12 AM, said:

OK, let me explain where I'm coming from.  I see much more open and pressing problems than anything you described, structural problems that even if we fixed the issues you're focused on, we're still screwed.  Hang on to your bow alice because we're headed deep down the rabbit hole today.  We're gonna go through this step by step first starting with some definitions and then going deeper.

1.  What is wealth?  People like to make this a lot more complicated than it really is.  They say it's paper money, or assets or even gold/silver if they believe in hard money.  It's a lot simpler than that.  Wealth is "stuff," more specifically the stuff necessary to survive, food, clothing or shelter or something that can be traded for those items ie goods, services, ideas.  Wealth is all about the resources necessary to survive as a human being.  The one and only reason that anything we use as a medium of exchange has any value to us is that we know it can be traded for the stuff necessary to survive.  Really simple, wealth is stuff.

2.  Simple corrollary to the above, in order to grow wealth, you must be making stuff.  Whether that's making widgets in a factory or creating ideas that other people can use, if you aren't making stuff, you're not growing wealth.

3.  There are two segments to the economy, the private sector and the public sector.  In broad general terms ONLY the private sector produces stuff and therefore only the private sector produces wealth.

4.  This can easily be seen by asking the chicken/egg question with gov't and economies.  Do gov'ts appear and then economies grow around them or do economies appear and then gov'ts grow around them.  It's obviously the latter.  Gov't can not exist without the private sector economy.

5.  There are some limited instances where the public sector produces stuff like roads or military hardware but it's limited in scope.  In the case of roads it's part of the public sectors role in fostering a good environment for economic activity, in line with providing for common defense and providing laws everyone can work under equally.  There is economic benefit  to these things but it does not create wealth.  In the same vein, producing a rifle or a tank is producing "stuff" but it's not stuff that's economically useful on it's own, its only there to provide defense and foster an environment for wealth growth.

6.  All that being said, currently, the amount of our economy spent in the public sector at one level or another, is approximately 42%.  42% of our economy is not focused on producing stuff and therefore not producing wealth.  Is it any wonder that our economic growth is anemic that we see our wealth slowly wasting away?

7.  This can easily be see by looking at public sector spending over time vs our generational GDP growth.  Generation GDP is the 20 year rolling average of GDP growth.  In the last 50 years, as public sector spending has gone from 10-15% of GDP to 42% of GDP, generational GDP growth rate has dropped from 4.9% to 2.6%.  Losing that compounding growth is digging a hole that we'll never get out of.

8.  Over the next 30 years, the US gov't has between $50 trillion and $100 trillion of unfunded liabilities.  That money will have to be paid by someone or someone will have to not get what they were promised.  That's simple logic.

9.  Concurrently, our anemic economy is not producing enough jobs to put enough people to work to pay for those things.  The only thing that will save us is large scale growth and we're actively discouraging such growth.

10.  Now into secondary effects.  You always hear about how so many people have college degrees these days.  Well, problem is a whole generation of kids who couldn't hack it in anything useful, have gone off and gotten worthless degrees that don't provide any job prospects because they don't grow wealth in any way ie make stuff.  That BS in "Southeast asian gay jewish womens studies" probably sounds good, but essentially the only job prospect is teaching other worthless little turds "Southeast asian gay jewish womens studies" you're probably going to be unemployed.  All you have to do is look at the number of people with undergraduate degrees waiting tables to see what I'm talking about.

11.  The kids from 10 above and even the kids who did something useful, have borrowed a TON of money at severely overpriced schools to get their educations.  They are hocked up to their eyeballs in debt.  At the same time, they can't get a job to pay the loans back because they either majored in something ridiculous or the anemic economic growth has lead to nowhere near enough jobs.  What jobs are available are going to older more experienced people who are working longer because their retirement investments haven't panned out.

12.  The student loan bubble from 11 above, is going to pop soon.  Somebody is going to eat a big chunk of money when those kids can't pay their loans back.  The student loan bubble is quite easily bigger and more far reaching than the housing bubble.

13.  The older workers working longer because their retirement investments haven't panned out is directly attributable to one thing.  The 401k/IRA etc etc were born in 1978 and popularized in the early 80s.  That means that at minimum, anybody who started work paying into one 30 years ago, is getting ready to retire in the next 10 to 15 years.  We've been constantly inflating the markets with retirement investments for 30 years now.  That's why P/E and P/D ratios of the S&P 500 are roughly double their historic averages even AFTER the housing crisis.  This has been made worse by the anemic underlying growth rates.  Now, what does basic supply/demand tell you about what will happen when that huge pile of people start going home and start selling their assets to survive?  I means constant downward pressure on asset prices, reducing the ability of later people to retire making number 11 above even worse.  Worst case is the bubble pops completely with a huge run on asset prices obliterating markets.

14.  All of this results in even lower overall growth rates, probably an even higher percentage of public sector spending, further slowing growth and making all the issues I've listed above even worse.

There is no conspiracy, we've done all of this to ourselves.  We the people did it and now we the people are going to have to eat a gigantic shit sandwich....
Nova I don't totally disagree with you....in fact I agree with you on many points.....I also don't believe in dark conspiracies, I believe in factual conspiracies that are out there right in front of our eyes. There is no doubt that our Gov't has given incentives to Corporations to locate factories overseas..........if that isn't a conspiracy then what is? They are sending All of our industry out of the country, we don't make anything we consume anymore aside from fast food. There is also no denying that the Federal Reserve is an unconstitutional entity, run and owned by the World Bank. Every American should read the book, The Creature from Jeckyl Island, it will open your eyes to the true Elite who run this nation. Is it any coincidence that  every Treasury Secretary in this nation has come from one of the Wall Street Elite  (Goldman Sachs specifically). There is far more with documented proof. It's all there to be read for anyone that wants to do the research, there are plenty of Gov't white papers going over much of this. Why would an intelligent Congress allow illegals to jusf walk across our borders when supposedly worried about an inside terror attack lol.

Why would an intelligent congress allow our Constitutional rights be ripped right out from under us? Why are trying to be empire builders, when the founders only intended for our military to protect us from attacking nations, not to attack other nations who've not attacked us and enforce our form of gov't on them, we sure as hell wouldn't accept that and they wont either. We can't chqnge what has been going on for over 2000 yrs in the Middle East. There is also no denying the devaluation of the dollar, read Dr Paul Craig Roberts former asst. sec of treasury under Ron Reagan, this is a very intelligent man who knows the plan they are working and that the jig is up. Why do you think they are militarizing our police forces and why they are preparing for mass chaos on the streets? Again Gov't info readily available to anyone on the net, but they know the majority of Americans have been dumbed down and are too lazy to do any research for themselves. I can almost guarantee you that if you polled all the employees where you work, only 20% would even know who the Vice Prez is. I'll stop here but coud  go much deeper.
http:////ukathletics...ootball2_sm.jpg

Repent, Turn from Sin and Trust in the Savior for your Salvation......this is the Way of the Master.Posted Image

[img]http://http://img179.imageshack.us/img179/2251/joesnewlogobr4.jpg[/img]

#20
smokeyone

smokeyone

    Descendant of a Lord of the Manner in Berkshire.

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • Posts:
    9,639
  • Joined:
    Jul 2010
  • Cash:
    0
  • High Fives:
    3,519
We still have an over diverified non united national base that fights against the best interest of the nation to further the group they identify with. Until the idea of the melting pot is brought back to force a singluar national idenity back on us we are not going to fix squat. It used to be that the idea was to bring the best you had and americanize it. Now we press one for english because its unfair to expect people to learn english, we avoid inter cities because its unrealistic to expect poor people to live by civilized rules, we have to lower standards for everything from police, firefighter and our military because some people that have no business pretending to fill these roles want to. We no longer see ourselves as Americans and live by the rule of American exeptionalism, now we are a hyper diverse group with no commonality beyond proximity.

Diversity without merit is killing this nation. We used to improve as ideas and customs were added to the melting pot but without it we have gone to seed as a nation

Edited by smokeyone, 09 January 2013 - 08:22 PM.

Posted Image