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SEC Gambling Lines - Week 12

Two weeks in a row below .500 - and many of my picks looked pretty good halfway through the 3rd quarter... Plus, I was doing better when I was cherry picking a few games and not including national games. What? Just like a Georgia Bulldog to make excuses you say?

That's not very nice. Take it back or I will hold my breath until I turn blue in the face...

And now we are down to a few weeks left to see if the SEC can even get in the MNCG. How can we be left out? I mean, isn't it OUR party?

Does anyone REALLY believe that the winner of the Bama vs UGA game won't deserve to show the country that we are still the best?

Alot has been said about how this is the "worst weekend for football". Welcome to Cupcake Week! The worst week in NCAA football you say? That's why God made gambling lines, to keep games and weeks like this interesting... Too bad only THREE SEC games have a line this week. Not only is the conference taking a little dessert break, but this week's cupcakes aren't even in the big boy football division. So I will highlight a few more national games of interest, you know, games that involve SEC rival teams and games that impact the top standings of the BcS.

On to the games.

God's Conference:

Mississippi State - 6.5

Vanderbilt - 4

LSU - 18.5

Missouri - 5

Western Carolina

Georgia Southern

South Carolina

Jacksonville State

Alabama AM


Sam Houston State
Texas AM

National Games:

Georgia Tech - 13

South Florida
Miami (FL) - 6.5

Florida State - 31

North Carolina State
Clemson - 17

Oklahoma - 11
West Virginia

Southern Cal - 3.5

Kansas State - 13

Wake Forest
Notre Dame - 24

Oregon - 20.5

We start with Arkansas vs MS State. John L Smith is living under the delusion that he may be under consideration to keep the top job for the Razorbacks and Dan Mullen is trying to demonstrate that his early season success against weak competition was not just a flash in the pan. Take the Bulldogs as they try to position themselves for a better bowl.

Derek Dooley has two more chances to avoid going 0 fer in conference play. James Franklin is trying to make sure that his squad gets a better post season reward than staying in state. It says a lot for the job that he has done with Vandy that they are worrying about WHICH bowl they wind up going to... I think that Vandy wins, but take the Vols and four points as this looks to be a close game.

The Rebel Bears only need one more win to get bowl eligible. Unfortunately, Les Miles seems to have found a way to keep his quarterback out of the bars and focused on football. The Bayou Bengals look like a much better team than they did at the start of the season and will win this game comfortably, but 18.5 is too many points. No bowl eligibility for Colonel Black Bear, but look for a respectable effort as Ole Miss finds a way to cover.

Mizzou finds itself in a place that no one thought they's be just a few short weeks ago, one win away from getting a bowl bid. They have aTm & Syracuse left. the Orangemen just ruined Louisville's bid for a perfect season. The tigers don't look to have much of a shot to beat Aggie this year, so they MUST win this week. Tigers beat the Cuse handily.

We are not even going to talk about the other conference games, except to say that I am putting the over / under on impactful injuries at THREE players... And this DOES NOT count against my picks...

Here we are at the end of the season and Duke has a chance to help decide who wins the All Cupcake Conference. If GA Tech wins, the will minimally tie for their division. There is speculation that Miami will self impose a post season ban to minimize expected NCAA sanctions, but if they lose to the Blue Devils after the North Avenue Trade School Boys beat them, they would lose the division anyway. Wow. Yellow Jackets win big, tie the division and become bowl eligible.

Speaking of the Hurricanes, they play an in state directional school that could actually beat them. It won't happen, as the Bulls aren't that good, but what does it say when the Hurricanes are only a touchdown favorite against one of the worst teams in the Big East? Hurricanes cover the 6.5.

Jimbo Fisher is trying to think of a better adjective than "retarded" to use when he cries about how his Criminoles don't rise higher in the BcS after their inevitable pounding of the Terriblepins. And Maryland truly is terrible. Noles cover easily.

Beating NC State was supposed to be a sign that Derek Dooley had the Vols moving in the right direction, especially after the Wolfpack handed FSU a huge loss early in the season. Funny how perceptions can change during the coarse of a season. Believe it or not, the Clemson Tigers are very much alive to be an at large selection for one of the big boy bowls. But they have to beat SC and they have to win this game in an impressive fashion. Tigers get their needed style points this weekend.

Early in the season the Mountaineers and Sooners were both considered legitimate teams to watch as possible Big 12 candidates to challenge the SEC (read Alabama) for the MNC. It hasn't worked out that way for either of them. Here we are and the 'Eers still need a win to make a bowl game. Whudda thunk it? They won't get the W this week, but they can score. I expect West VA to give a strong effort that falls short and cover the 11.

The Kansas State Wildcats are looking at their 2nd chance to play for it all this decade. Fortunately for them, they won't have to play in a conference championship game this time. All they have to do is beat the lowly Baylor Bears and hang on against Texas. The Wildcats may well get knocked out of the MNC game, but not this week as they handle Baylor easily.

I keep going back to Tennessee. The 2nd best program in the SEC, historically speaking, has suffered through the indignation of being irrelevant for too many years. Well, how do you think Bruin fans feel? Can you believe that UCLA (and we ARE NOT talking about the Upper Corner of Lower Abalama) is just one win away from earning the privilege of being undressed by Oregon in the Pac 12 championship game? Says here that they get that win - take the Bruins and the gift points and enjoy watching Lane Kiffen have a tantrum on the sidelines...

The Demon Deacons are another team needing just one win to make a post season trip. Too bad they are facing an Irish squad desperate to impress voters and a motivated Vandy squad a week later. More style points for the Fighting Irish this week.

Lastly, we take a look at the team that supposedly has the hardest road to stay unbeaten and play for the MNC for the 2nd time in 3 years. Donald's offense is explosive, so much so that the spread is a staggering 3 touchdowns against a legitimate top 15 team. Donald wins, but give me the Cardinal and 20.5.

A recap of dcbl's investment advice for week 12:

Mississippi State - 6.5
Tennessee + 4
Mississippi + 18.5
Missouri - 5
Georgia Tech - 13

Miami (FL) - 6.5
Florida State - 31
Clemson - 17

West Virginia + 11
UCLA + 3.5
Kansas State - 13
Notre Dame - 24

Stanford + 20.5


Sure hope you're right about State. We need a big win in the worst way.
You forgot about Mizzou against Syracuse and the line is at -5 1/2.

Mizzou_Fan, on 16 November 2012 - 09:53 AM, said:

You forgot about Mizzou against Syracuse and the line is at -5 1/2.

oops - fixed it - thanx for catching that & sorry...
I was really confident going into this game but then Sheldon Richardson got suspended. Now I am semi-confident and really hope we can pull this off. Oh and just saying I did think we would be in this situation a couple weeks ago. :D

View PostMizzou_Fan, on 16 November 2012 - 09:53 AM, said:

You forgot about Mizzou against Syracuse and the line is at -5 1/2.

BTW - three services are showing 5,5; four are at 5 even and one is at 4.5. So i am going with 5...


View Postdcbl, on 16 November 2012 - 10:04 AM, said:

BTW - three services are showing 5,5; four are at 5 even and one is at 4.5. So i am going with 5...

My bad, I went to one site and one had 6 1/2 and three had 5 1/2 so I just said 5 1/2.

View PostMizzou_Fan, on 16 November 2012 - 10:07 AM, said:

My bad, I went to one site and one had 6 1/2 and three had 5 1/2 so I just said 5 1/2.

nobody has 6.5 - that is where the line opened this week
I have NC State +18!!

But I agree on almost all of your other picks. Watch out for Syracuse. They aren't a gimme. Pretty solid team this year.

View PostBenny, on 16 November 2012 - 09:53 AM, said:

Sure hope you're right about State. We need a big win in the worst way.
We'll get back on track tomorrow.
woo hoo!

finally a winning week!!