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Expansion - A Story That Won't Die




It really is the story that won't die. The rumors and moves USUALLY all come crashing down AFTER the season is over and a football champion is crowned. But Jim Delaney and the Bi X (XIV?) just couldn't wait.

Did the Big X decide to grab Maryland and Rutgers to upstage the BCS National Championship since his conference is once again irrelevant in the discussion? Was the move made to counter Notre Dame's quasi alliance with the ACC? Or did his television partners cut a deal with cable networks to force a nickle per household increase on every subscriber up and down the eastern seaboard? Rumors are running rampant...

I was going to leave this story alone until after the SEC Championship game, but the news this morning is just too compelling to pass on. Just a few short days after Duke's coach Krzyzewski expressed concern over the ACC's stability, Virginia Tech's AD Jim Weaver has essentially reached out to the Southeastern Conference!

Weaver's comments have definately blown Twitter up:

“I really haven’t thought about (whether the SEC would contact Tech) because the discussion (thanks to Maryland’s move) has just come about three or four days ago.  I’d like to defer my comment for right now, but there may potentially be some interest.”

There are not too many schools out there that can cause Mike Slive to stop what he is doing and change course. Texas Agriculture and Military was one of them, and make no miskake, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University is another. If VA Tech is truly interested in joining, the SEC WILL find a way to make it happen.

This creates another problem. Who will be school number 16? Odds are, it will be a school in North Carolina. Is this the death knell for the ACC? It sure seems that way. If the Hokies have one foot out the door, can Florida State and Clemson be far behind?

Truth is, the Big 12 was written off for dead after CO, NE, MO & aTm bolted, but within less than a year they have re-established themselves as one of the stable "power conferences". Can the Atlantic Coast Conference pull off a similar feat? The president's and ad's of ACC schools must all be very nervous right now. There are many proud and storied athletic programs in that conference.

Will the power conferences all go to 20 schools and create an 80 school universe? Will they stop at 16? Right now, nobody really knows. Fasten your seatbelts, the expansion carousel is sure to be a fast and furious ride this offseason...


64 Comments

View PostCrimson Kicker8, on 22 November 2012 - 07:27 AM, said:

This was an op-ed illustrating how super conferences COULD be used within a playoff system.  It did nothing to illustrate how super conferences were the motive for a playoff system.  The true motive I illustrated still stands.


I noticed that you completely ignored the other links that were provided that back up my assertion that these "mega-conferences" are the beginning of a playoff. Here isone of the stories that I linked that uses critical thinking and reasoning to assert that the "mega-conferences" are being instituted as a stepping stone to a playoff and eventually, abolishing the bowl games. This article was posted in May of this year and so far, he has been "spot-on" with some of his predictions.

The Future Of College Football: Playoffs, 16-Team Super Conferences And Notre Dame Joining A Conference


Major changes to the college football landscape got underway in 2010 when we found out Utah and Colorado would be going to the Pac-12 and Nebraska was on its way to the Big Ten.

There have been more shakeups since, with Syracuse and Pittsburgh headed to the ACC, and both the Big 12 and Big East adding some new members as well.

Then came news of a four-team college football playoff beginning in 2014. This is merely the beginning, though.

Further expansion to reach 16-team super conferences, more playoff games, and tons and tons of money all await. (We can thank Florida State's recent flirtation with the Big 12 for starting it back up.)

We've looked at where things stand right now and taken some educated guesses to provide you with what college football may look like in a few years. (Note: we don't think this has ANY chance of happening over night, however.)


Florida State's move to the Big 12 will start the next wave of conference expansion

Ignore all the backpedaling from administrators. Like Texas A&M and Missouri last year, all Florida State needed to do was plant a seed regarding its discontent with the ACC. That part is done.

An FSU-Big 12 marriage makes perfect sense for both parties, and would start off the domino effect once again.

The Big 12 wouldn't stay put at 11 schools, though, so bringing along a Clemson, Miami, Louisville, or all of the above is also likely.


The Big Ten will improve its recruiting base by expanding south and inviting Duke, Georgia Tech, and Maryland

Sure the Big Ten really likes its current setup, but there's no denying where the country's best high school football is concentrated: the South.

Since raiding the SEC or prying Texas away from the Big 12 are not options, the Big Ten will stick to its current formula of great academic institutions with wide fan bases by inviting three major southern schools: Duke, Georgia Tech, and Maryland.


The SEC will become the first 16-team super conference by adding Virginia Tech and North Carolina

Not one to be left behind, the SEC will look at the major ACC schools and add two new states to its TV foot print: Virginia and North Carolina.

Virginia Tech and UNC will make the SEC the first super conference and give it a shot at making $1 billion in TV money.


These moves will force Notre Dame to finally join a conference as a member of the...


Big Ten.

In its never-ending quest to match the SEC blow for blow, the Big Ten becomes the second conference to reach 16 members.

Notre Dame joins Duke, Georgia Tech, and Maryland as part of the new foursome.

UND is obsessed with its independence, but with larger conferences leading to fewer out-of-conference games it's no longer as advantageous as it used to be.


The Pac-12 has no schools remotely close by to add, so it stays put

It's funny to think that a potential Pac-16 made up of a bunch of Texas and Oklahoma schools is what got the ball rolling a few years ago, yet it never came to fruition.

Like the current Big Ten, the Pac-12 loves the way things are. But unlike the Big Ten, it has no logical area to expand to.

Even suggesting a Boise State and/or BYU addition is ludicrous, so the Pac-12 remains a 12-team conference


The Big Four (Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, Pac-12) enter a weird new era of cooperation now that they have no where else to expand.

The haves and have nots of college football will be even more clearly-defined than they currently are with all of these major changes.

Like the recently-announced Big 12-SEC bowl partnership, the four major conferences will come to big agreements regarding the postseason, increased stipends for student-athletes, and more.


The ACC and Big East will be left on life support, forcing them to band together for mere survival.

UConn, Cincinnati, Rutgers, Syracuse, and whatever else is left of the Big East and ACC will for all intents and purposes be discarded.

These two conferences are already considered the weak links in major college football, but with a greater concentration of power things will only get worse for the left overs.


Big TV money and fan excitement will make a college football playoff expand from 4 to 8 teams

Just wait until the major TV networks start fighting for rights to the four-team playoff set to begin during the 2014 season.

Conference commissioners, university presidents, and athletic directors will fall in love with this new revenue stream and want more of it.

We're not saying a 16-team playoff field is completely out of the question, but they'll tinker with eight for a while before getting there.

Another result of TV money? The Big Four will each have their own network as well.


Traditional bowl games will slowly begin to die off

That SEC-Big 12 postseason partnership we mentioned earlier was just the beginning.

The giant success of a college football playoff and not having to adhere to the ridiculous conditions created by third parties, i.e. bowls and their dumb ticket sale requirements, will result in fewer and fewer bowl games.

Throw in rumblings of raising the minimum number of wins required to qualify for a bowl game from six to seven and there doesn't seem to be too much life left in this old system.

It won't die off completely, though. It'll survive in the same way the NIT has in college hoops. Plus, all those MAC and Sun Belt schools need something to do in December.


ALL the power house schools will have their own regional television networks

Texas has one.

Notre Dame will only join a conference if it can do the same (the Big Ten or anyone else would allow it in lieu of their currently exclusive NBC deal).

And schools like Ohio State, Florida, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Georgia could also launch successful TV ventures.

As far as live game programming goes, these networks would carry what's called third-tier games: those that conferences don't televise nationally and already allow individual schools to decide on how to broadcast them.


Coaches' salaries will hit $10 million

Coaching in major college football is a very cut throat, high stakes endeavor filled with giant pay checks.

All the shakeups will only intensify things, resulting in even bigger payouts for the men in charge.

The highest paid coaches currently earn just north of $5 million, expect it to double once everything is said and done.




http://www.businessi...-12-2012-5?op=1

View PostCrimson Kicker8, on 21 November 2012 - 11:52 PM, said:

West:
LSU
Texas A&M
Missouri
Arkansas

Central:
Alabama
Auburn
Ole Miss
MSU

East:
Florida
Florida State
Georgia
South Carolina

North:
Tennessee
Kentucky
Vanderbilt
Virginia Tech

Play 3 division games, 2-3 protected rival games in other divisions, and 2-3 rotating games in other divisions.
If that were the case, who would Mizzou's rivals be? Mizzou would already be in the same division as A&M and Arkansas who are the only ones that make sense for a rival. I hope that we would get Vandy and Kentucky.

View PostMizzou_Fan, on 22 November 2012 - 09:42 AM, said:


If that were the case, who would Mizzou's rivals be? Mizzou would already be in the same division as A&M and Arkansas who are the only ones that make sense for a rival. I hope that we would get Vandy and Kentucky.

I bet you would. Hahaha! We all would.

View PostaTm 82, on 22 November 2012 - 12:12 AM, said:

If U-H and SMU would have been patient for just 1 more year they would have probably would have been invited  into the BIG12.

If we have learned anything it's that if someone wants to switch conferences, they will.

View Postcocky4ever, on 22 November 2012 - 04:17 AM, said:

In that scenario how do we determine the conference champ?
I think that the best way would just be conference record then record against each other and just keep going down the tiebreakers from there.
http://en.wikipedia....football_season

My how things have changed.

View PostNeo, on 22 November 2012 - 08:54 AM, said:

I noticed that you completely ignored the other links that were provided that back up my assertion that these "mega-conferences" are the beginning of a playoff. Here isone of the stories that I linked that uses critical thinking and reasoning to assert that the "mega-conferences" are being instituted as a stepping stone to a playoff and eventually, abolishing the bowl games. This article was posted in May of this year and so far, he has been "spot-on" with some of his predictions.

The Future Of College Football: Playoffs, 16-Team Super Conferences And Notre Dame Joining A Conference


Major changes to the college football landscape got underway in 2010 when we found out Utah and Colorado would be going to the Pac-12 and Nebraska was on its way to the Big Ten.

There have been more shakeups since, with Syracuse and Pittsburgh headed to the ACC, and both the Big 12 and Big East adding some new members as well.

Then came news of a four-team college football playoff beginning in 2014. This is merely the beginning, though.

Further expansion to reach 16-team super conferences, more playoff games, and tons and tons of money all await. (We can thank Florida State's recent flirtation with the Big 12 for starting it back up.)

We've looked at where things stand right now and taken some educated guesses to provide you with what college football may look like in a few years. (Note: we don't think this has ANY chance of happening over night, however.)


Florida State's move to the Big 12 will start the next wave of conference expansion

Ignore all the backpedaling from administrators. Like Texas A&M and Missouri last year, all Florida State needed to do was plant a seed regarding its discontent with the ACC. That part is done.

An FSU-Big 12 marriage makes perfect sense for both parties, and would start off the domino effect once again.

The Big 12 wouldn't stay put at 11 schools, though, so bringing along a Clemson, Miami, Louisville, or all of the above is also likely.


The Big Ten will improve its recruiting base by expanding south and inviting Duke, Georgia Tech, and Maryland

Sure the Big Ten really likes its current setup, but there's no denying where the country's best high school football is concentrated: the South.

Since raiding the SEC or prying Texas away from the Big 12 are not options, the Big Ten will stick to its current formula of great academic institutions with wide fan bases by inviting three major southern schools: Duke, Georgia Tech, and Maryland.


The SEC will become the first 16-team super conference by adding Virginia Tech and North Carolina

Not one to be left behind, the SEC will look at the major ACC schools and add two new states to its TV foot print: Virginia and North Carolina.

Virginia Tech and UNC will make the SEC the first super conference and give it a shot at making $1 billion in TV money.


These moves will force Notre Dame to finally join a conference as a member of the...


Big Ten.

In its never-ending quest to match the SEC blow for blow, the Big Ten becomes the second conference to reach 16 members.

Notre Dame joins Duke, Georgia Tech, and Maryland as part of the new foursome.

UND is obsessed with its independence, but with larger conferences leading to fewer out-of-conference games it's no longer as advantageous as it used to be.


The Pac-12 has no schools remotely close by to add, so it stays put

It's funny to think that a potential Pac-16 made up of a bunch of Texas and Oklahoma schools is what got the ball rolling a few years ago, yet it never came to fruition.

Like the current Big Ten, the Pac-12 loves the way things are. But unlike the Big Ten, it has no logical area to expand to.

Even suggesting a Boise State and/or BYU addition is ludicrous, so the Pac-12 remains a 12-team conference


The Big Four (Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, Pac-12) enter a weird new era of cooperation now that they have no where else to expand.

The haves and have nots of college football will be even more clearly-defined than they currently are with all of these major changes.

Like the recently-announced Big 12-SEC bowl partnership, the four major conferences will come to big agreements regarding the postseason, increased stipends for student-athletes, and more.


The ACC and Big East will be left on life support, forcing them to band together for mere survival.

UConn, Cincinnati, Rutgers, Syracuse, and whatever else is left of the Big East and ACC will for all intents and purposes be discarded.

These two conferences are already considered the weak links in major college football, but with a greater concentration of power things will only get worse for the left overs.


Big TV money and fan excitement will make a college football playoff expand from 4 to 8 teams

Just wait until the major TV networks start fighting for rights to the four-team playoff set to begin during the 2014 season.

Conference commissioners, university presidents, and athletic directors will fall in love with this new revenue stream and want more of it.

We're not saying a 16-team playoff field is completely out of the question, but they'll tinker with eight for a while before getting there.

Another result of TV money? The Big Four will each have their own network as well.


Traditional bowl games will slowly begin to die off

That SEC-Big 12 postseason partnership we mentioned earlier was just the beginning.

The giant success of a college football playoff and not having to adhere to the ridiculous conditions created by third parties, i.e. bowls and their dumb ticket sale requirements, will result in fewer and fewer bowl games.

Throw in rumblings of raising the minimum number of wins required to qualify for a bowl game from six to seven and there doesn't seem to be too much life left in this old system.

It won't die off completely, though. It'll survive in the same way the NIT has in college hoops. Plus, all those MAC and Sun Belt schools need something to do in December.


ALL the power house schools will have their own regional television networks

Texas has one.

Notre Dame will only join a conference if it can do the same (the Big Ten or anyone else would allow it in lieu of their currently exclusive NBC deal).

And schools like Ohio State, Florida, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Georgia could also launch successful TV ventures.

As far as live game programming goes, these networks would carry what's called third-tier games: those that conferences don't televise nationally and already allow individual schools to decide on how to broadcast them.


Coaches' salaries will hit $10 million

Coaching in major college football is a very cut throat, high stakes endeavor filled with giant pay checks.

All the shakeups will only intensify things, resulting in even bigger payouts for the men in charge.

The highest paid coaches currently earn just north of $5 million, expect it to double once everything is said and done.




http://www.businessi...-12-2012-5?op=1

^ THIS is very interesting & pretty much along the lines of what I am thinking.

The big question is which, if any, ACC schools get left in the cold. Wake Forrest seems to be the odd man out/big loser here. OR NC State. My feeling is that UNC and Duke will be a package deal.

The Big East schools are talking about having a vote to dissolve the league - http://collegebasket...issolve-league/

I also think that Louisville gets left at the alter (there are just too many "better" schools out there).

View PostMizzou_Fan, on 22 November 2012 - 09:42 AM, said:


If that were the case, who would Mizzou's rivals be? Mizzou would already be in the same division as A&M and Arkansas who are the only ones that make sense for a rival. I hope that we would get Vandy and Kentucky.

Lol and it's ironic that Vandy beat you this year.

View PostNeo, on 22 November 2012 - 08:54 AM, said:

I noticed that you completely ignored the other links that were provided that back up my assertion that these "mega-conferences" are the beginning of a playoff.

So "critical thinking" is the new code word for "I'm changing my original claim because I got called on it?"  I'm sorry Neo, NONE of your links assert that super conferences are forming in order to institute a playoff.  I told you the motive; money and TV contracts.  There isn't some grand scheme to institute super conferences in order to have a playoff system.  Either concept can stand on it's own and isn't reliant on the other.

View PostaTm 82, on 21 November 2012 - 10:29 PM, said:

The Big12 is trying to get to 16 teams too. That means adding 6 teams between now and the 2014. They are looking at adding teams from the Conference USA / WAC re-alignment and ACC. They want a north and south Division with 8 teams in conference and 3 non conference games and a Big 12 Championship game. Expanding into areas where they are not currently, doing it before some of the conferences start this 50 million dollar buyout fee's and before the 2014 Conference and non conference strength of schedule kicks in to be 1 of the 4 qualifiers for the playoffs.
They are going to announce this after the current Bowls and the Big10 jumped the gun and signed Rutgers and Maryland before someone else did.and before they could back out.
The Big12 is looking at adding teams like LaTech, UL-L, ULM, Rice, New Mexico State, Arkansas State, etc
They want some teams in the conference that Kansas, Iowa State, TCU, Texas Tech, West Virginia can compete and beat up on and put them in TV markets they are not currently in.
not a chance at those teams

View PostaTm 82, on 22 November 2012 - 12:12 AM, said:

They didn't want to dilute the conference, but aTm and Missouri bolted and they brought in TCU from the WAC and West Virginia from the Big East. They were the 2 best teams they could find. Then they saw 3 teams jump from Conference USA,and 2 from Mountain West,  to the BigEast. If U-H and SMU would have been patient for just 1 more year they would have probably would have been invited  into the BIG12. It is all about the revenue, recruiting, market share, Conf champ game, playoff and bowl games. The more teams in your Conference the more money you make, the more games you have on TV.
Now they wanna start a search for 6 more teams by 2014 and avoid some schools paying big exit fee's by giving notice.
The Big East saw this coming and installed the $50 Million dollar buyout fee. The Big East was just trying to save their conference from being ravaged by other conferences.
It all depends on who wants to come to the BIG12 and make it the Big16.
Other teams will be filling spots in the new WAC/Conference USA and Mountain West, the Big East losing 2 teams( Rutgers,Maryland) and gaining 5(UH, SMU, Boise State, San Diego State, & UCF)
BIG10, WAC, Conference USA, Mountain West and Big East will all look different in 2013. Pretty sure the BIG12 will look different too.
TCU and West Virginia are better football programs a&m and Missouri.
I might be the only one,  but I think USM would be a good addition to a Automatically Qualifying Conference. They have a good history and good recruiting.

View PostStallingsBaldSpot, on 22 November 2012 - 11:50 AM, said:

Lol and it's ironic that Vandy beat you this year.
You guys beat us this year but Mizzou will obviously be better in the future.

View PostGidnik, on 22 November 2012 - 01:32 PM, said:

TCU and West Virginia are better football programs a&m and Missouri.

Mizzou, yes. A&M, no.

View PostGidnik, on 22 November 2012 - 01:32 PM, said:

TCU and West Virginia are better football programs a&m and Missouri.
If that were so, the SEC would have had them instead.

View PostStallingsBaldSpot, on 22 November 2012 - 02:25 PM, said:


Mizzou, yes. A&M, no.
no

View PostGidnik, on 22 November 2012 - 05:02 PM, said:

no

Neither TCU or West Virginia have a better football program than Texas AM

View PostStallingsBaldSpot, on 22 November 2012 - 05:33 PM, said:

Neither TCU or West Virginia have a better football program than Texas AM
what about texas a&m's football program is better than either TCU or West virginia?

View PostGidnik, on 22 November 2012 - 05:48 PM, said:

what about texas a&m's football program is better than either TCU or West virginia?

they are top 20 in all time wins, they have a longer standing tradition - almost every service ranks them higher...

View Postdcbl, on 22 November 2012 - 05:53 PM, said:

they are top 20 in all time wins, they have a longer standing tradition - almost every service ranks them higher...
not 20,theyre 25


west virginia is 24. just so you know
in all time wins

View PostGidnik, on 22 November 2012 - 06:14 PM, said:

not 20,theyre 25


west virginia is 24. just so you know

WVA is 15 and aTm is 19 if you take out the insignificant schools according to this wikepedia - http://en.wikipedia....l_teams_by_wins

and West VA is in West VA

would rather have aTm - it's so close it does not matter

TCU?

enjoy your new "rivalry"

View PostGidnik, on 22 November 2012 - 05:48 PM, said:

what about texas a&m's football program is better than either TCU or West virginia?

Everything. Money, tradition, success, facilities. Fan supports/following. AM has 3 NCs while TCU and WVU have 2 combined

View PostStallingsBaldSpot, on 22 November 2012 - 06:29 PM, said:

Everything. Money, tradition, success, facilities. Fan supports/following. AM has 3 NCs while TCU and WVU have 2 combined
1939 guys. it seems like just yesterday

View PostGidnik, on 22 November 2012 - 06:56 PM, said:

1939 guys. it seems like just yesterday

It's in the record books.