2012 PTR: Year In Review

For the posters who have at least been at SECtalk since the beginning of the summer, you'll remember that @HobnailedBoots compiled a series of threads over the course of the summer on a weekly basis. These topics focused on a different SEC team each week and allowed members to vote on each team's final W/L record for the 2012 season.

Well, with the anticipation that increased with each passing week of the PTR threads as we clawed closer to kickoff, that excitement has already come and gone. The regular season is now complete.

So, how right accurate were the members at SECtalk? Which teams were the biggest surprises? The biggest flops? Let's take a look.

How I did this:
I took about 20 mins to sort through all the PTR threads and calculated the average predicted win total for each team. Then, I compared that number with the number of actual wins.

Analysis:

Alabama Crimson Tide:
Average predicted wins: 10.7
Actual wins: 11
Breakdown: Alabama was one of the most accurately predicted teams in the SEC, as 56 of 60 voters predicted the Tide within one game of its actual 11-1 record.

Arkansas Razorbacks:
Average predicted wins: 9.1
Actual wins: 4
Breakdown: Arkansas was easily the worst flop of any SEC team in the 2012 season. In fact, out of 56 votes, NOBODY predicted the Hogs to do worse than 6-6, except for one joke 0-12 vote.

Auburn Tigers:
Average predicted wins: 7.3
Actual wins: 3
Breakdown: Auburn is right there with Arkansas in falling incredibly short of season expectations. Out of 79 voters, only 2 predicted the War Eagles to finish as badly as 3-9, like they did.

Florida Gators:
Average predicted wins: 8.1
Actual wins: 11
Breakdown: The Gators were expected to be strong, but they far surpassed SECtalk’s expectations. Florida finished 11-1, but out of their 54 votes, only 2 predicted a double-digit win season!

Georgia Bulldogs:
Average predicted wins: 10.7
Actual wins: 11
Breakdown: It’s true that Georgia caught flack for their schedule over the summer, but to their credit they lived up to expectations. 44 of 54 voters said Georgia would win 9-11 games, so the Dawgs actually did slightly better than what most predicted.

Kentucky Wildcats:
Average predicted wins: 3.5
Actual wins: 2
Breakdown: As hard as it is to believe, Kentucky was even WORSE than expected. 36 of 46 voted the ‘Cats within 3-4 wins, and they only finished with 2. Ugh.

LSU Tigers:
Average predicted wins: 10.6
Actual wins: 10
Breakdown: LSU did almost exactly what they were expected to do by the majority at SECtalk. 34 of 39 voters predicted 10 wins or more, and the Tigers won 10 with the only two losses being in close games.

Mississippi State Bulldogs:
Average predicted wins: 7.7
Actual wins: 8
Breakdown: A sour end to the season with an Egg Bowl beatdown, but the Bullies actually did about what most expected them to do. 47 of 55 voters had State within one game of their actual final record.

Missouri Tigers:
Average predicted wins: 7.1
Actual wins: 5
Breakdown: Over the summer, Missouri was actually expected to be the stronger newcomer into the SEC. But the Show-Me state Tigers suffered a setback. 61 of 68 voters said Mizzou would be bowl-eligible, but alas, Coach Pinkel’s squad will be home for the holidays.

Ole Miss Rebels:
Average predicted wins: 3.7
Actual wins: 6
Breakdown: Rebels going bowling?! Who saw this coming? Apparently, not too many people here at SECtalk. In fact, only 4 of 65 voters had Ole Miss with 6+ wins!

South Carolina Gamecocks:
Average predicted wins: 9.7
Actual wins: 10
Breakdown: Carolina was also one of the most accurately-predicted teams in the SEC. An overwhelming 68 out of 80 majority had the Cocks within one game of their actual record.

Tennessee Volunteers:
Average predicted wins: 6.1
Actual wins: 5
Breakdown: It was uglier on the field than what the numbers would indicate, but Tennessee actually didn’t do a whole lot worse record-wise than what we thought. The Vols had a huge window of opportunity as 64 of 76 voted anywhere from 5-8 wins. Unfortunately for Derek Dooley, his team fell at the very bottom of that window.

Texas A&M Aggies:
Average predicted wins: 6.1
Actual wins: 10
Breakdown: The best surprise of the year in the SEC, by far. If this statistic doesn’t earn Kevin Sumlin the SECtalk Coach of the Year Award (is there one?) then nothing should. Out of 80 voters, only 5 predicted 8+ wins. And the Aggies won 10. Hats off, great season.

Vanderbilt Commodores:
Average predicted wins: 6.3
Actual wins: 8

Breakdown: Vanderbilt is one of those teams that quietly did significantly better than what most anticipated. James Franklin built off his first-season success by getting to 8 wins, a feat that only 7 of 65 voters saw happening.
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Statistical summary:

Here’s a final statistical summary to highlight the differential in average predicted wins and actual wins. Think of it the same as turnover margin. Green indicates a season that surpassed expectations (positive), while red indicates a team that fell below expectations (negative).

Texas A&M + 3.9
Florida + 2.9
Ole Miss + 2.3
Vanderbilt + 1.7
Alabama + 0.3
Georgia + 0.3
Mississippi State + 0.3
South Carolina + 0.3
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LSU –0.6
Tennessee –1.1
Kentucky –1.5
Missouri –2.1
Auburn –4.3
Arkansas –5.1

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Awards:


SECtalk.Com's Best Surprise of 2012 Award goes to..... The Texas A&M Aggies!!!
SECtalk.Com's Biggest Flop of 2012 Award goes to...... The Arkansas Razorbacks